1. 中美贸易战持续近两年，什么改变了？
两国即将在本月15日于白宫签订第一阶段贸易协议。回顾持续近两年的贸易战，美中经贸关系在哪些层面发生了深刻变化？
1. The Sino-US trade
war has lasted nearly two years. What has changed?
war has lasted nearly two years. What has changed?
From March 2018 to
January 2020, the U.S.-China trade talks went from tense, multiple ceasefires
to renewed smoke, stagnation, and silence before the signing of the first phase
of the agreement. Like roller coaster.
January 2020, the U.S.-China trade talks went from tense, multiple ceasefires
to renewed smoke, stagnation, and silence before the signing of the first phase
of the agreement. Like roller coaster.
The two
countries are about to sign a first-phase trade agreement at the White House on
the 15th of this month. Looking back at the trade war that lasted for nearly
two years, at what levels have profound changes occurred in US-China economic
and trade relations?
countries are about to sign a first-phase trade agreement at the White House on
the 15th of this month. Looking back at the trade war that lasted for nearly
two years, at what levels have profound changes occurred in US-China economic
and trade relations?
A贸易逆差
美国总统特朗普发起贸易战的一大动机，是力求减少美国对华贸易逆差。
逆差确实下降了，但总量依然高企
1, the trade deficit
A major
motivation for US President Trump to launch a trade war is to reduce the US
trade deficit with China. The deficit did decline, but the total remains high
motivation for US President Trump to launch a trade war is to reduce the US
trade deficit with China. The deficit did decline, but the total remains high
B美国农产品出口
美国农民承担了大部分中国反制关税的威力。美国每年对华农产品出口量从此前的250亿美元，一度跌至70亿美元。
2, US agricultural
exports
exports
American
farmers bear most of the power of China to counter-tariffs. The US exports of
agricultural products to China each year fell from US $ 25 billion to US $ 7
billion.
farmers bear most of the power of China to counter-tariffs. The US exports of
agricultural products to China each year fell from US $ 25 billion to US $ 7
billion.
C 中国在美投资大幅下跌
在贸易战期间，美国对华投资相对稳定，维持在每年130万美元左右，但中国对美国的投资则锐减。
3, Chinese investment
in the U.S. drops sharply
in the U.S. drops sharply
During
the trade war, US investment in China was relatively stable, maintaining around
$ 1.3 million per year, but Chinese investment in the United States plummeted.
the trade war, US investment in China was relatively stable, maintaining around
$ 1.3 million per year, but Chinese investment in the United States plummeted.
D. 美中营商气氛受损
虽然美国企业暂时并未因贸易战而大批量撤离中国，中美紧张的贸易关系是他们近年头号的烦心事。
根据美中贸易全国委员会的调查，中美紧张局势是在华经营的美国企业在2019年的首要关切。
4. The business
climate in the US and China is damaged
climate in the US and China is damaged
Although US
companies have not withdrawn from China in large numbers due to the trade war,
the tension between China and the United States has been their number one worry
in recent years.
companies have not withdrawn from China in large numbers due to the trade war,
the tension between China and the United States has been their number one worry
in recent years.
According
to a survey by the US-China Business Council, the tension between China and the US
is a top concern for US companies operating in China in 2019.
to a survey by the US-China Business Council, the tension between China and the US
is a top concern for US companies operating in China in 2019.
E. 对中美、全球经济的影响
贸易战为中美两国的经济增长都带来负面影响。
白宫原估计2019年美国经济增长将超过3%，但贸易战延烧为这一增长目标蒙上阴影，特朗普政府于是多次向美联储施加降息压力。美联储其后三次降息，不过专家估计，去年美国经济增长将不会达到3%。
中国经济增长也在逐步放缓，世界银行估计，中国在2020年的增长率将低于6%，这将是在近30年来最低水平
5, Impact on China, the US, and the global economy
The trade war has negatively
affected the economic growth of both China and the United States.
affected the economic growth of both China and the United States.
The White House
originally estimated that the US economic growth will exceed 3% in 2019, but
the delayed trade war has clouded this growth target and the Trump the administration has repeatedly put pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times later, but experts estimate
that the US economic growth will not reach 3% last year.
originally estimated that the US economic growth will exceed 3% in 2019, but
the delayed trade war has clouded this growth target and the Trump the administration has repeatedly put pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times later, but experts estimate
that the US economic growth will not reach 3% last year.
China's
economic growth is also gradually slowing down. The World Bank estimates that
China's growth rate in 2020 will be less than 6%, which will be the lowest
level in nearly 30 years.
economic growth is also gradually slowing down. The World Bank estimates that
China's growth rate in 2020 will be less than 6%, which will be the lowest
level in nearly 30 years.
2.美中贸协签署在即 专家看坏未来谈判
美国总统特朗普定于1月15日与中国签署第一阶段贸易协议。他称这是重大胜利，还邀请了2百多人参加在白宫举行的签字仪式。但白宫官员直到10日才表示，最终的中文文本尚未完成。签署前还会不会有突发状况？
2.U.S.-China
trade association signs imminent experts not optimistic about future
negotiations
trade association signs imminent experts not optimistic about future
negotiations
US President Trump is scheduled to sign a first-phase trade
agreement with China on January 15. He called it a major victory! And invited
more than 200 people to attend a signing ceremony at the White House. But White
House officials didn't say until the 10th that the final Chinese text had not
been completed. Will there be an emergency before signing?
agreement with China on January 15. He called it a major victory! And invited
more than 200 people to attend a signing ceremony at the White House. But White
House officials didn't say until the 10th that the final Chinese text had not
been completed. Will there be an emergency before signing?
无论如何，中美贸易战休兵至少能让市场松一口气。2018年和2019年中美贸易冲突不断，双方互相威胁和徴收关税。现在情势稍缓，不确定性降低，除了消费市场复苏，企业也可能继续进行先前搁置的投资。这些都使美国经济得以恢复增长，对特朗普的连任之路有帮助。特朗普发动关税战的主要目标之一是减少美国的贸易赤字，并杜绝不公平的贸易做法，但贸易专家怀疑，华盛顿能否让北京实现重大的结构性变革。
In
any case, the truce in the Sino-US trade war will at least relieve the market.
Sino-US trade conflicts continued in 2018 and 2019, and the two sides
threatened each other and collected tariffs. Now the situation is slowing down
and uncertainty is decreasing. In addition to the recovery of the consumer
market, companies may continue to make previously held investments. All these
have enabled the US economy to resume growth and help Trump's re-election. One
of Trump's main goals in launching a tariff war is to reduce the U.S. trade
deficit and put an end to unfair trade practices, but trade experts doubt that
Washington will allow Beijing to achieve major structural changes.
any case, the truce in the Sino-US trade war will at least relieve the market.
Sino-US trade conflicts continued in 2018 and 2019, and the two sides
threatened each other and collected tariffs. Now the situation is slowing down
and uncertainty is decreasing. In addition to the recovery of the consumer
market, companies may continue to make previously held investments. All these
have enabled the US economy to resume growth and help Trump's re-election. One
of Trump's main goals in launching a tariff war is to reduce the U.S. trade
deficit and put an end to unfair trade practices, but trade experts doubt that
Washington will allow Beijing to achieve major structural changes.
普拉萨德说，中国不太可能向美国屈服，例如按照美国要求大幅减少国家对公司的补贴。双方可以宣布达成“可接受的”一项协议，但称不上是胜利。
Prasad
said that China is unlikely to yield to the United States, such as
substantially reducing the country's subsidies to companies in accordance with
US requirements. The two sides can announce an agreement that is
"acceptable", but not a victory.
said that China is unlikely to yield to the United States, such as
substantially reducing the country's subsidies to companies in accordance with
US requirements. The two sides can announce an agreement that is
"acceptable", but not a victory.
3美中贸易战远非结束，不确定性依然存在
中国国务院副总理刘鹤美国东部时间星期一（1月13日）下午抵达华盛顿，签署美中第一阶段贸易协议。但是，来自美国和中国的经济和贸易专家们说，第一阶段贸易协议的签署并不代表美中贸易战的结束，相反，贸易战造成的不确定性已经超出了决策者的初衷，还将继续影响两国经济的发展。
3U.S.-China
trade war does not end, uncertainties remain
trade war does not end, uncertainties remain
Chinese
Vice Premier Liu He arrived in Washington on Monday (January 13) Eastern Time
to sign the first phase of the US-China trade agreement.
Vice Premier Liu He arrived in Washington on Monday (January 13) Eastern Time
to sign the first phase of the US-China trade agreement.
However,
economic and trade experts from the United States and China say that the signing of the first phase of the trade agreement does not represent the end of
the US-China trade war. On the contrary, the uncertainty caused by the trade
war has exceeded the original intentions of policymakers and will Continue to
affect the economic development of the two countries.
economic and trade experts from the United States and China say that the signing of the first phase of the trade agreement does not represent the end of
the US-China trade war. On the contrary, the uncertainty caused by the trade
war has exceeded the original intentions of policymakers and will Continue to
affect the economic development of the two countries.
Author: Cnmoulding(China)
Web: http://www.cnmoulding.com
Web: http://www.cnmoulding.com
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