2020年10月29日星期四
2020年10月27日星期二
2020年10月19日星期一
Treasury bonds sold
Something's wrong! China sold $15.7 billion in U.S. debt in three months, and Japan sold $14.6 billion in one month... Three major creditors collective reduction, what signal?
In the top three U.S. debt holders, China has sold U.S. debt for three consecutive months, totaling $15.7 billion; Britain has reduced its holdings by $26 billion in three months; and Japan, the largest lender, sold $14.6 billion in August alone...
China sold $15.7 billion in U.S. debt for three consecutive months
Foreign investors held $7.083 trillion in U.S. debt in August, down from a record high of $7.097 trillion in July, according to recent Treasury data.
China, the second-largest creditor, sold $5.4 billion in U.S. debt in August, down to $1.068 trillion. This has been China's three consecutive months of reducing U.S. debt, including June reduction of $9.3 billion, July small reduction of $1 billion.
Although China remains the second largest creditor in the United States after the reduction, its position of $1.068 trillion has reached a new low since March 2017.
This year, In January, February and May, China increased its US debt holdings by $8.7 billion, In March and April, they reduced their holdings by $10.7 billion and $8.8 billion respectively.
While reducing U.S. debt, China has increased its investment in Japanese government bonds. Between June and August, China bought 2.2 trillion yen (139.9 billion yuan) of Japanese government bonds, a record quarterly purchase of Japanese bonds, according to the Ministry of Finance.
Countries are selling American debt
As the largest creditor in the United States, Japan reduced its $14.6 billion debt to $1.278 trillion in August, and remained the largest creditor in the United States. That month, the country held 6.3 percent of total U.S. debt, holding a low proportion of innovation.
In July, Japan held a sharp increase of $31.5 billion, a record high of $1.293 trillion. Japan surpassed China as the largest creditor to the United States in June last year and remains so far.
In August, the UK reduced its holdings of US debt by $4.8 billion to $419.9 billion, and its position remains the third largest holder of US debt.
This is the third consecutive month in the UK reduction, including a sharp reduction of $21 billion in July and a small reduction of $200 million in June. The UK increased its holdings by $22.3 billion in May last year, surpassing Brazil as the third largest holder of US debt. .
In addition, in August, Brazil, Canada, Thailand, the Netherlands, Israel, Australia, Spain, Sweden and other countries have reduced their U.S. debt to varying degrees. However, some countries have increased their US debt, including Ireland, Switzerland, Belgium, India, Singapore and France.
The U.S. fiscal deficit is record, and dollar assets are less attractive
CNmoulding comments: now including our plastic injection molding industry, a large number of export industries still rely on dollars for settlement. If the dollar has really been indiscriminate, international settlement with yen, euro instead of the dollar will happen soon.
Trump polls close again 2016 signs are not obvious
Among the many polls in 2016, only two made Trump's reversal of the leading poll on the last day IBD/TIPP 18 the latest poll, showing Trump's overall poll rally in the week of 10/12-17, only five points behind Biden. However, IBD/TIPP, comparing the data from four years ago, believes that with only 14 days left in the election, there is no clear sign of Trump's defeat.
IBD/TIPP is the Investor's Business Daily investor business daily and its subsidiary, which do weekly rolling surveys to track the u.s. election. And because their starting point is from the perspective of American investors, some of their findings are slightly different from those of mainstream opinion polls. As they do, the overall national polling gap is much smaller than CNN and other institutions do. And they made Trump's slightly leading survey in the last few days of 2016, although not the same as Hillary Clinton's final 2% universal suffrage, at least their survey may be more observable in observing Republican supporters, such as Trump's vote, than in other polls. The rolling survey is the best source of information to observe the trend of change.
IBD/TIPP's survey, which included both Liberal and Green Party candidates, shows that Biden's support slipped from 52 to 49-50, while Trump's support rose from 42-43 to 45, narrowing the gap from 8-9 to 5.
However, the average of other pollsters is:
RCP website: Biden 51.3:42.4 Trump, Biden lead 8.9
270 toWin Website: Biden 52.3:42.7 Trump, Biden lead 9.6
538.com: Biden 52.4:41.9 Trump, Biden lead 10.6
Compared with the national average, the IBD/TIPP figure is 1-2 points lower on Biden's side and 1-2 points higher on Trump's side, a difference of 2-4 points. Overall gap, also difference 3 points.
Assuming that mainstream media surveys have always been biased towards Democrats, their figures need to be adjusted (previously written ,-3), which may be closer to reality than IBD/TIPP surveys. Of course, this is only after 11/4 to say who is the best this year.
IBD/TIPP survey, some data compared with the 2016 results show Trump's current disadvantage.
Over 65, Trump led Hillary by 53:44 in 2016, Won nine points, But now he's in IBD/TIPP investigation, Biden is up 14 points 55 to 41, The gap is 23 points. There are 20% of the 65 voters in the United States.
Among independent voters, Trump was one point ahead of Hillary Clinton in 2016 at 43.42, but Biden is now seven points ahead at 45.38.
Trump, a non-Hispanic voter, last lost to Hillary Clinton at 28:66, a much bigger 24:70.
Even among white voters, Trump won more than 15 points in 2016 and is now only 9.5 points ahead. He is not mainly losing white women, and even white men are four points less ahead than in 2016. Old, white and male should be Trump's most solid iron ticket base.
In terms of the urban-rural gap, the city / metropolitan area, whether in 2016 or this time, is much more supportive of the Democratic Party, this time, in fact, the same, Biden about 18 points ahead. The countryside is Trump's stronghold, and last time, as at present, Trump was 24 points ahead. The key is a suburban battle. Trump won Clinton 50:45 on the outskirts of the city in 2016, but Biden is now 54:39 ahead of the suburbs by 15 points.
IBD/TIPP the most special thing in the survey is the investor class, They define investors as households with at least $10,000 in assets invested in stocks and mutual funds. In 2016, Trump won Hillary with 48-42, The current figure is Biden 52:44 ahead of Trump. On the non-investors side, Biden took the lead at 47:45.
In the remaining two weeks, can Trump repeat 2016 and reverse key states in the last 10 days? IBD/TIPP from the latest survey data compared with the 2016 results, the answer is: not necessarily. Because, they did not see obvious signs from the data. Trump is worse than 2016 in several areas, almost nothing better than 2016.
Trump will not give up until the last minute, which is known all over the world. What is Trump's chance to see in the next two weeks?
1.10/22. Although the debate will not be very influential, it is definitely one of the variables.
2. whether Trump's string of strong-man performances from diagnosis, hospitalization, discharge, and resumption of the campaign will affect middle-of-the-road voters, his poll support has climbed again to 46-48.
3. after Trump recovered (not knowing if it was 100%), he promised to provide treatment drugs to the whole population, especially the elderly.
4. hearing of the Chancellor of Justice nominee and the completion of the pre-election vote inspired Republican and conservative voters.
5. stimulate economic recovery program clearance, and then to the people and enterprises to pay.
6. the record of mailing ballot papers, there will be more opportunities for disputes and litigation in the future. It is good for Trump to have a lawsuit that makes the election inconclusive.
According to the IBD/TIPP survey, Trump is still 5.7% behind, noting that no presidential candidate has lost more than 3% of the country's votes since 1874(2.1% last time) and won the White House by electoral votes.
However, the worst factor for Trump is that 27.95 million people have completed voting by 10/18 night, accounting for 20.2 percent of the 2016 turnout, a record pre-vote record for the United States. Time is not on Trump's side.
He's still behind in six key states: Buddha, Bing, Mi, North Carolina, Asia, The least behind was Florida 1.4, North Carolina 2.7, Arizona 3.9, Pennsylvania 4.4, Wisconsin 6.1, Michigan 7.2. Biden's win would be a close win. Biden's crisis slipped 50% in overall support, And Pennsylvania's support is about to fall to a safety line of 4(Arizona is only 3.9).
Cnmoulding continue to focus on the US election, which determines the direction of the world. Even for a small mold company like us, which exports $1 million export $1 million a year of precision plastic products.
2020年10月17日星期六
One of Trump's important allies thinks he will fail!
The Daily Beast website has published an amazing report that has been supporting President Trump and launching Rupert Murdoch, a Western media tycoon who has been campaigning for Trump's political campaign 24/7 by conservative media such as Fox News and the New York Post, who he controls, recently suddenly told people around him that he thinks Trump will fail in this year's election.
According to the Daily Beast report, the statement came from three people who heard Murdoch say the words, but the American media did not reveal their identities.
CNmoulding-a china mold maker:We continue to focus on the US presidential election because he is not a national election. He decided the direction of the whole world. Whether you like the United States or not, you must admit that the United States is the most powerful country in the world.
2020年10月16日星期五
Thanks to Trump, China got better, America go sicker
American Pulitzer Prize winner Thomas L.Friedman a column in the New York Times
When I watched Trump and Biden's first presidential debate, there was a sudden illusion in my mind: the Chinese must have gathered to watch the debate, and whenever Trump said something unreliable, The Chinese laughed and drank a whisky. In less than half an hour, the Chinese who watched the debate were drunk.
How could this not be possible? Chinese see something they have never seen before —— an incoherent u.s. president, constantly out of control in the camera antics. Trump has shown a clear picture of his eagerness to stay in office, as his failure to re-election could mean prosecution, humiliation, and liquidation.
No wonder the Chinese gloat! An epidemic that began in Wuhan and has been contained in China is still raging among the American population. This is not what we think!
The new crown outbreak should have been China's "Chernobyl" incident, but eventually became the Western countries "Waterloo ". That's what John Mickerswat and Adrian Woodridge put forward in their new book Alert: Why the epidemic exposes Western weaknesses and how to fix it.
According to Johns Hopkins University ,65.74 of every 100000 people in the United States die from the new crown virus, with a total of about 216000 so far. Only 0.34 of every 100,000 people in China died of the new coronavirus, a total of 4750. You can doubt China's data, but even if China's death figures double, China still does much better than the United States in protecting its people.
In fact, at the beginning of this month, when Trump was infected with the new crown virus, the White House became a super-transmission place, and millions of Americans dared not send their children to school, China's local transmission was almost zero. Hundreds of millions of Chinese poured into bus stations, railway stations and airports to celebrate National Day holidays all over the country.
At the same time, the renminbi has shown unprecedented strength. October 1, bloomberg reported ," the yuan after 12 years of the best quarter, is being a haven of global concern ." China's exports and imports soared in september.
( Cnmoulding Note: RMB appreciation is unfavorable to Chinese foreign trade enterprises, including precision mould and automotive precision injection molding.)
This good situation of economic development should have appeared in the United States!
Michael twat (Micklethwait), editor-in-chief of bloomberg news agency (Bloomberg News), told me :" we think, relatively speaking, the western government peaked in the 1960s, when the united states was busy sending people to the moon and the chinese were struggling with food and clothing ." Plus ," that was the last time three-quarters of Americans trusted their government ."
But today we're headed for "a full reversal of history, starting 500 years ago, when china was equally well ahead —— accounting for a quarter of the world's economy, and when the chinese government was by far the most mature ," adds the economist's political editor, woodridge. We forget China's former glory, but China does not. This may be a crucial year for Asia to regain its lead 500 years ago, unless the West awakens ."
In the face of the current epidemic, if the United States really wants to recover, it needs to develop a national plan to deal with the new crown epidemic. China did well: it deployed all the tools of its authoritarian surveillance system to track people infected with coronavirus and control its spread. Some facial recognition techniques in China are very good. You don't even have to take off your mask and scan your eyes and nose.
The United States can not adopt this strategy, the United States government system is different from China. But our democratic system has failed to take effective measures to achieve the same epidemic control effect as China.
This is frustrating!
America confronted some countries in modern history —— Japan and Germany in World War II, Korea and Soviet Union in Cold War. At the beginning of the war, they always have an advantage: they can command their society to do things from top to bottom through a strong government system. But in the long run, the United States always wins, because although we are usually unprepared for war and start slowly, we always adapt quickly and unite to win the final victory.
But this time, the United States failed to work together to meet the challenges of the new crown epidemic.
On March 28 this year, in the face of the spread of the new crown epidemic in the United States, Trump announced that "our country is fighting an invisible enemy ", and he vowed to summon" all the strength of the American nation "to defeat it. But he didn't do it. With the exception of health workers, public solidarity and wartime willingness to sacrifice rarely or quickly disappeared.
Why? And that's not because democracies do n' t have the capacity to manage the epidemic effectively —— South Korea, Japan and New Zealand are doing much better than we are.
For this reason, the United States has largely a unique culture of individualism, a highly decentralized place-state-federal power-sharing systems, fragile public health systems, divided politics, and Republicans who have been working to weaken Washington's government; while many Americans are keen to get news from social networks, the spread of social media magnifies conspiracy theories and undermines truth and trust.
Most of all, we now have a president whose political strategy for re-election is to divide us, destroy trust, destroy the truth, and declare any news that is not in line with his goals "false ". The lack of trust in the truth and scientific control of the epidemic has led to the situation in the United States today.
The last outbreak in the United States was in 1918, when many Americans didn't mind wearing masks —— You go to the previous photos to know —— because American leaders at that time asked people to do so and set an example. But this time, the president did not use facts as a basis for American trust, but also ignored the threat of the virus and laughed at those wearing masks. So, many Americans don't trust him.
As a result, in a democracy like ours, it is irrational to discuss how to deal with the new crown epidemic.
Today's troubles are not solved by a new vaccine. And we have lost trust in each other and in our Government, our basic understanding of the truth —— all of which are necessary for a common response to the public health crisis. This trust we have in previous wars, but today in the face of the new crown epidemic is gone. I believe Joe Biden is nominated by the Democratic Party and is likely to win because a large number of Americans intuitively believe that we are disgusted by the status quo of disunity, and Biden may begin to reverse it. Biden's victory was not enough to restore America to a healthy state politically and practically, but it was necessary. At the same time, I hope that Russia, China and other countries, do not take the opportunity to attack us now, the United States is no longer the former United States.