Among the many polls in 2016, only two made Trump's reversal of the leading poll on the last day IBD/TIPP 18 the latest poll, showing Trump's overall poll rally in the week of 10/12-17, only five points behind Biden. However, IBD/TIPP, comparing the data from four years ago, believes that with only 14 days left in the election, there is no clear sign of Trump's defeat.
IBD/TIPP is the Investor's Business Daily investor business daily and its subsidiary, which do weekly rolling surveys to track the u.s. election. And because their starting point is from the perspective of American investors, some of their findings are slightly different from those of mainstream opinion polls. As they do, the overall national polling gap is much smaller than CNN and other institutions do. And they made Trump's slightly leading survey in the last few days of 2016, although not the same as Hillary Clinton's final 2% universal suffrage, at least their survey may be more observable in observing Republican supporters, such as Trump's vote, than in other polls. The rolling survey is the best source of information to observe the trend of change.
IBD/TIPP's survey, which included both Liberal and Green Party candidates, shows that Biden's support slipped from 52 to 49-50, while Trump's support rose from 42-43 to 45, narrowing the gap from 8-9 to 5.
However, the average of other pollsters is:
RCP website: Biden 51.3:42.4 Trump, Biden lead 8.9
270 toWin Website: Biden 52.3:42.7 Trump, Biden lead 9.6
538.com: Biden 52.4:41.9 Trump, Biden lead 10.6
Compared with the national average, the IBD/TIPP figure is 1-2 points lower on Biden's side and 1-2 points higher on Trump's side, a difference of 2-4 points. Overall gap, also difference 3 points.
Assuming that mainstream media surveys have always been biased towards Democrats, their figures need to be adjusted (previously written ,-3), which may be closer to reality than IBD/TIPP surveys. Of course, this is only after 11/4 to say who is the best this year.
IBD/TIPP survey, some data compared with the 2016 results show Trump's current disadvantage.
Over 65, Trump led Hillary by 53:44 in 2016, Won nine points, But now he's in IBD/TIPP investigation, Biden is up 14 points 55 to 41, The gap is 23 points. There are 20% of the 65 voters in the United States.
Among independent voters, Trump was one point ahead of Hillary Clinton in 2016 at 43.42, but Biden is now seven points ahead at 45.38.
Trump, a non-Hispanic voter, last lost to Hillary Clinton at 28:66, a much bigger 24:70.
Even among white voters, Trump won more than 15 points in 2016 and is now only 9.5 points ahead. He is not mainly losing white women, and even white men are four points less ahead than in 2016. Old, white and male should be Trump's most solid iron ticket base.
In terms of the urban-rural gap, the city / metropolitan area, whether in 2016 or this time, is much more supportive of the Democratic Party, this time, in fact, the same, Biden about 18 points ahead. The countryside is Trump's stronghold, and last time, as at present, Trump was 24 points ahead. The key is a suburban battle. Trump won Clinton 50:45 on the outskirts of the city in 2016, but Biden is now 54:39 ahead of the suburbs by 15 points.
IBD/TIPP the most special thing in the survey is the investor class, They define investors as households with at least $10,000 in assets invested in stocks and mutual funds. In 2016, Trump won Hillary with 48-42, The current figure is Biden 52:44 ahead of Trump. On the non-investors side, Biden took the lead at 47:45.
In the remaining two weeks, can Trump repeat 2016 and reverse key states in the last 10 days? IBD/TIPP from the latest survey data compared with the 2016 results, the answer is: not necessarily. Because, they did not see obvious signs from the data. Trump is worse than 2016 in several areas, almost nothing better than 2016.
Trump will not give up until the last minute, which is known all over the world. What is Trump's chance to see in the next two weeks?
1.10/22. Although the debate will not be very influential, it is definitely one of the variables.
2. whether Trump's string of strong-man performances from diagnosis, hospitalization, discharge, and resumption of the campaign will affect middle-of-the-road voters, his poll support has climbed again to 46-48.
3. after Trump recovered (not knowing if it was 100%), he promised to provide treatment drugs to the whole population, especially the elderly.
4. hearing of the Chancellor of Justice nominee and the completion of the pre-election vote inspired Republican and conservative voters.
5. stimulate economic recovery program clearance, and then to the people and enterprises to pay.
6. the record of mailing ballot papers, there will be more opportunities for disputes and litigation in the future. It is good for Trump to have a lawsuit that makes the election inconclusive.
According to the IBD/TIPP survey, Trump is still 5.7% behind, noting that no presidential candidate has lost more than 3% of the country's votes since 1874(2.1% last time) and won the White House by electoral votes.
However, the worst factor for Trump is that 27.95 million people have completed voting by 10/18 night, accounting for 20.2 percent of the 2016 turnout, a record pre-vote record for the United States. Time is not on Trump's side.
He's still behind in six key states: Buddha, Bing, Mi, North Carolina, Asia, The least behind was Florida 1.4, North Carolina 2.7, Arizona 3.9, Pennsylvania 4.4, Wisconsin 6.1, Michigan 7.2. Biden's win would be a close win. Biden's crisis slipped 50% in overall support, And Pennsylvania's support is about to fall to a safety line of 4(Arizona is only 3.9).
Cnmoulding continue to focus on the US election, which determines the direction of the world. Even for a small mold company like us, which exports $1 million export $1 million a year of precision plastic products.
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