2020年3月14日星期六

polluting industry Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)



整个世界都在苦难中,相信未来的光明,加油大家

The whole world is suffering, belief in the future bright, refueling everyone---cnmoulding kennyhan





类重污染行业中,火电行业是现代社会电力发展的主力军,虽然在中国已有部分水电和核电机组,但火电仍占领电力的大部分市场。2019 年火电发电装机容量为 114367 万千瓦,占装机总量 60.2%。从发电量来看,火电全年为 49231 亿千瓦时,占比高达 70.4%。火电行业受资源的地域分布影响较大,大型火电厂主要分布在煤炭资源丰富的重要煤炭工业基地和大城市,例如煤矿业发达的陕西,
火电企业相对密集。全国火电装机规模集中于华东、华北地区,其中山东、江苏、 浙江、内蒙和山西地区装机规模较大。我国五大发电公司中国大唐集团公司、中 国国电集团公司、中国华能集团公司、中国华电集团公司和中国电力投资集团的下属电厂多位于华东、华北和东北地区。

这场新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎疫情,是一场对党和全国人民的考验,是对我国治理体系、经济韧性、危机应急能力、社会动员能力的全面检验。

从目前情况看,疫情对当前经济特别是对消费的影响在加大,尤其是对交通运输、文化旅游、 酒店餐饮和影视娱乐等服务消费影响都是比较大的。虽然疫情对经济影响的大小,
取决于疫情防控的进展和成效。虽然这场新型冠状病毒对火电行业的影响基本是 中性的,所受的影响在所有行业里应该算比较轻的。但由于世卫组织宣布新型冠状病毒疫情为国际关注的突发公共卫生事件,这将加剧外需对经济的冲击。 若疫情短时不能控制,有可能推高煤炭、天然气等电力燃料的价格。同时,如果
疫情影响使企业不能复工,将会对对人力资源密集型企业,如纺织行业、电力电 子代工企业等用电量将大幅下滑,粗略估计用电量下行
25%
左右,火电下行 25- 30%左右。

总之,这场新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎疫情,有可能改变我国电煤市场供需总体平衡状况,并有可能改变电煤价格平稳趋势或,而且在局部地区、局部时段会存在电煤供应紧张的情况。

Possible impact of new coronavirus on
heavily polluting industry-thermal power industry


Among the 16 types of heavily polluting
industries, the thermal power industry is the main force for the development of
modern society. Although there are already some hydropower and nuclear power
units in China, thermal power still occupies most of the power market. The
installed capacity of thermal power generation in 2019 is 114.367 million
kilowatts, accounting for 60.2% of the total installed capacity. In terms of
power generation, thermal power was 4,923.1 billion kWh, accounting for 70.4%
of the total. The thermal power industry is greatly affected by the
geographical distribution of resources. Large thermal power plants are mainly
distributed in important coal industrial bases and large cities rich in coal
resources, such as Shaanxi, where coal mining is developed, and thermal power
companies are relatively dense. The thermal power installed capacity nationwide
is concentrated in eastern and northern China, of which Shandong, Jiangsu,
Zhejiang, Inner Mongolia and Shanxi have larger installed capacity. China's
five largest power generation companies, China Datang Corporation, China
Guodian Corporation, China Huaneng Group Corporation, China Huadian
Corporation, and China Power Investment Corporation's subordinate power plants
are mostly located in East, North and Northeast China.

The pneumonia epidemic of the new
coronavirus infection is a test of the party and the people of the country. It
is a comprehensive test of China's governance system, economic resilience,
crisis response capabilities, and social mobilization capabilities.

Judging from the current situation, the
impact of the epidemic on the current economy, especially on consumption, is
increasing, especially on transportation, cultural tourism, hotel catering, and
film and entertainment services. Although the magnitude of the economic impact
of the epidemic depends on the progress and effectiveness of the epidemic
prevention and control. Although the impact of this new type of coronavirus on
the thermal power industry is basically neutral, the impact should be
relatively mild in all industries. However, as the WHO declares the new
coronavirus outbreak as an "public health emergency of international
concern", this will exacerbate the impact of external demand on the
economy. If the epidemic cannot be controlled for a short period of time, it
may raise the price of electric fuels such as coal and natural gas. At the same
time, if the impact of the epidemic prevents enterprises from returning to
work, power consumption for human resource-intensive enterprises, such as the
textile industry and power electronics foundry companies, will fall sharply.
-Around 30%.

In short, this new coronavirus-infected
pneumonia epidemic may change the overall balance of supply and demand in the
thermal coal market in China, and may change the steady trend of thermal coal
prices or there may be tensions in the supply of thermal coal in local areas
and time periods. .

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