Shanghai's richest man is also short of money?

On July 27, Moody's, a rating agency, downgraded Fosun International Ltd.'s corporate family rating from quote Ba2" to quote Ba3".

 Moody's said the downgrade was due to Fosun's high and increasing debt leverage; long-term investment dependent on short-term funds; low-interest coverage at the holding company level; and increased risk of credit contagion.

 On July 28, Fosun said in a related reply that the rating downgrade quote was overly pessimistic quote;, overestimated the difficulties faced by Fosun and underestimated the ability of Fosun quote; to resist anti-epidemic risk & quote;, as well as the resilience of its fundamentals and business sector structure.

 Fosun International is a listed company of Shanghai's richest man, Guo Guangchang, according to public information. According to Hurun in 2019, Guo ranked 45th with a value of 57 billion yuan.

 According to Fosun International's 2019 report, Fosun International's total liabilities are 534.757 billion yuan, net assets are 18.0924 billion yuan, and the ratio of assets to liabilities is 74.72 yuan.

 Since 2014, Fosun International's financial leverage has been above 70 percent.

 Fosun International's short-term debt-servicing risk has soared because cash and cash equivalents do not cover the short-term debt. The continuous decline of operating cash flow indicates that the ability of "hematopoiesis" is insufficient and the financing channels are smooth, which is very important to Fosun International.

High leverage, Moody's downgrades Fosun international rating outlook to negative
 Moody's downgraded Fosun International Ltd.'s corporate family rating (CFR) from & quote Ba2" to & quote Ba3". in a recent rating adjustment

 Meanwhile, Moody's downgraded Fortune Star (BVI) Limited's senior unsecured debt rating from & quote Ba2" to quote Ba3". The bonds are guaranteed unconditionally and irrevocably by Fosun International.

 Lina Choi, Moody's senior vice president, said :& quote downgrade and negative outlook reflect Moody's expectations that Fosun's business will continue to face a challenging operating environment in the coronavirus-induced economic downturn, putting pressure on its weak liquidity and maintaining a high leverage ratio over the next 12-18 months quote ;

 On July 28, Fosun Group's official public name issued a statement:" in the short term, we do not deny that Fosun International has been implicated in the epidemic, this force majeure is inevitable. The Moody's downgrade of Fosun's international rating, we believe, is the future of Fosun has an overly pessimistic presupposition or estimate ."

 The Fosun Group said that judging Fosun's actual perception of debt risk by the level of data and the change of debt structure is more like a false professional misjudgment quote

Net operating cash flow continued to decline, foreign media reported that Fosun sold rookie equity to withdraw funds

 At the holding company level, Fosun International's liquidity (measured by adjusted operating cash flow interest)/interest coverage is weak, Moody's said. Moody's expects the ratio to remain well below double over the next 12-18 months, as its recurrent income (i.e. dividends mainly from base investments) will not be sufficient to cover its interest and operating expenses.

 It is worth noting that in recent years, Fosun's net operating cash flow has been declining year after year. In the last three years, the index is 30.453 billion yuan,13.302 billion yuan, and 7.834 billion yuan respectively. It can be seen that its ability to operate and obtain the cash is deteriorating, and its ability to guarantee debt and interest is declining.

 In the case of insufficient hematopoiesis, Fosun international debt service mainly depends on external financing. However, in 2019, Fosun net international financing cash flow from net inflow to net outflow, a significant outflow of 4.754 billion yuan.

 Another sign of the deteriorating financing environment is the rise in corporate lending interest rates, which ranged from 0.5 percent to 17.65 percent in 2019 and from 0 percent to 9.8 percent in the same period in 2018.

 In addition to the income brought by the change of fair value, the actual dividend income is not enough to cover the interest expenditure. In 2018-2019, Fosun International received interest and dividends (investments) of 2.265 billion and 5.868 billion, respectively.

 Aware of liquidity problems, Fosun International took measures to speed up asset recovery, which once triggered speculation about its capital constraints.

 In June, Reuters reported that Fosun International was negotiating with Alibaba and others to sell its shares in the smart logistics network rookie for a $20 billion valuation. Alibaba, Cainiao and found declined to comment on reports of the transfer of shares.

 Cainiao's stake was acquired by Fosun International in 2013 at 500 million yuan, accounting for 10 percent. In 2019, Alibaba announced an investment of 23.3 billion yuan in capital and old shares, increasing its stake in Cainiao from about 51 percent to 63 percent, while fosun's stake was diluted.

 According to the annual report, Fosun currently holds 5.81 percent of rookie shares, which are valued at $1.162 billion.

 In addition, on the evening of July 6, Guangdong High-Speed A announced that shareholders Yadong Fosun Asian Federation intended to transfer 202 million shares of the company's shares to Shandong High-Speed Investment Development Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Shandong High Speed by agreement. It accounts for 9.68% of the total share capital of the company.

 According to public information, The controlling shareholder of the Fosun Asian Union is Nangang Union, The actual controller is Guo Guangchang, Guangdong Expressway A" Cohesion quote; Because of the total price of more than 4 billion yuan in 2015 major asset restructuring. At that time, the additional price was 4.94 yuan, As of 3 July this year, Guangdong High-Speed A closed at 7.15 yuan, Based on the calculation of East Asia Fosun Asian Union holding four years floating earnings 45, It's about 446 million yuan.

 Will Fosun sell more assets to cut debt? CNMOULDING will continue to pay attention to.

Per capita disposable income in Shanghai

Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics website announced the first half of 2020,31 provinces residents per capita disposable income.

 In the first half of 2020, Shanghai residents are proud of their disposable income of 36600 yuan(around 5250usd) per capita. Beijing followed closely, with a per capita disposable income of 34600 yuan in the first half of the year. Shanghai and Beijing are the only members of the "30,000 yuan club "of per capita disposable income in the first half of the year.

Here is the definition of per capita disposable income:

 Per capita disposable income in real life often used to refer to per capita disposable income, strictly speaking, this use is not accurate. The disposable income of the residents is the sum of the final consumption expenditure and savings that the residents can use for the discretionary income. Includes both cash income and in-kind income. According to the source of income, disposable income includes four items: wage income, net operating income, property net income and transfer net income. In other words: excluding social security, provident fund, personal tax and a series of accounts payable, the rest of the money is your disposable income

 I know that when this per capita data comes out, a large number of people say: how can I be averaged? Where do I get that much money? I'm dragging my feet again!

 But is this per capita disposable income really higher than the actual situation this year?

My first feeling about per capita disposable income in Shanghai is that the data is low.

 This is not to say that my salary is high but relative to the consumption in Shanghai.

 The National Bureau of Statistics has released per capita disposable income and per capita consumption in cities in the first half of the year.

From the statistical data, in the first half of the year, Shanghai people were the ablest to consume, and the per capita consumption expenditure again exceeded 20,000 yuan, which was also the only city in the country to break through 20,000 yuan.

 Beijing, Zhejiang, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Fujian, and Chongqing are located in the 10,000 yuan ladder, the remaining 22 places per capita consumption expenditure is below 10,000 yuan.

 The per capita disposable income in Shanghai in the first half of the year was 36577 yuan, and the per capita consumption expenditure was 20112 yuan. Although Shanghai earns the most, it also spends the most.

 Why can spend so much money in Shanghai? Let's make a simple calculation.

Dinner

 According to Shanghai consumption level: breakfast lunch =30 yuan,30*30=900 yuan

 This is already a very economical algorithm, plus overtime dinner, supper, weekend dinner and so on that can be more than 900.

 Transportation

 Commute to and from public transportation, compromise even 6 good, occasionally bad weather, bad mood and so on hit a car  Even 200! 21 working days*6 200=326 yuan

 Shopping consumption. Everyone thinks that girls buy strong, but in fact now boys in shopping is also unwilling to show weakness!

 Game clothes, shoe bags, monthly wages to hand, the first is to lose the shopping cart stored in the baby. Don't tell me,1000 yuan is always required.

 Human expenses

 Friends' birthday, colleagues married, these irregular factors, although not necessarily every month, but when met is a big expense, the average down to 500 yuan per month is absolutely no exaggeration.

 Love Fund

 Love is very beautiful, but the cost is not small, after all, is not ancient, flower watching the month can be fixed for life, modern life is where to spend money, said before the cost of a date in Shanghai? 800 yuan! All kinds of fees: rent, utilities, internet, telephone, membership account fees. If you say you're single, love money does n' t exist. So, at least sleep? The rent can be expensive, in Shanghai even if the suburbs can no longer be suburban, including your utilities, telephone charges, Internet charges,1500 a month is absolutely super conscience price. Total :900 326 1000 500 800 1500=5026

 The monthly guaranteed cost is 5026 yuan! This is not a mortgage, car loans, not to mention deposits, negative assets have been very contented!

 Per capita, disposable income is 36,577, or 6096 yuan per month. Relative to this only for reference 5026 yuan of basic consumption, do you think it is still high? U. N. Secretary-General George Guterres recently pointed out that the richest 26 people control half of the world's wealth. Twenty-six people control half the world's wealth, and I am a billionaire on average with one of the 26. At the same time, I think that I have brushed a video some time ago. At a press conference during the two sessions, the Prime Minister said that about 600 million people in China earn about 1000 yuan, not to mention in first-tier cities. Even in the second and third-tier cities is difficult to survive.  After this video came out, I looked at most of the comments below, thinking that the Prime Minister was very approachable and focused on the bottom income of the masses. But some people use the topic, whenever there is positive news in society, he has moved out of the Prime Minister's words, very proud to say: China has about 600 million people in the income of about 1000 yuan. It's like he knows the country best. 

 CNMOULDING think about it, no money is not terrible, no money and take it for granted is terrible. Since we are a small mold maker, a plastic injection molding machine technician income can reach $2000 a month, if you do not have money, can only show that you did not work hard.

China opens a global tax era!

Big news! China opens a global tax era! Overseas resident Chinese domestic account to be canceled?

 

Recently, Bloomberg News, shock many Chinese citizens working overseas.

 According to the news, China began to tax the overseas income of Chinese citizens, that is, China began to be like the United States, no matter where you work in the world, you need to pay taxes to China, as long as you are a Chinese citizen, as long as you still hold a Chinese passport.

Bloomberg quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that China was tracking taxes on some Chinese citizens living outside the country. People familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that for nearly a while many Chinese state-owned employees in hong kong had been notified of the requirement to declare their global income for 2019 and pay personal income tax in accordance with china's domestic tax laws.

 Staff in Hong Kong have received a tax notice

 In the knowledge, also appeared the title "Big! China opens a global tax era! The post.

 The article quotes Bloomberg reports as well as a screenshot of a suspected Chinese state-owned enterprise in Hong Kong sending employees a "notification letter on the settlement of personal income tax on foreign earnings ".

According to the Circular of the General Administration of Taxation of the Ministry of Finance on the Policy on Personal Income Tax of Overseas Income, the income of Chinese residents from outside China shall be combined with domestic income to calculate the amount of tax payable and to declare and pay taxes annually.

 Of course, this notice is for employees of Chinese mainland enterprises in Hong Kong. But for British, American, Canadian, Australian, New Zealand, Singapore... Maybe it's just a matter of time.

 So who needs to pay taxes?

 Let's first define the concept of Chinese taxpaying residents.

 According to the new tax law issued last year, Article 1 of the Personal Income Tax Law of the People's Republic of China stipulates:

 Individuals who have a domicile in China or who have no domicile and have resided in China for a total of 183 days in a tax year shall be individual residents. Individual income tax shall be paid in accordance with the provisions of this Law for income derived by individual residents from within and outside China.

 If you don't live in China, how do you define a residence? Article 2 of the Regulations on the Implementation of the Personal Income Tax Law of the People's Republic of China states:

 Having residence in China means habitual residence in China because of household registration, family, and economic interests.

 In order to further illustrate this abstract concept, the State Administration of Taxation has further explained the "residence ": for an individual who lives abroad for reasons such as study, work, family visit, travel and so on, and who still lives in China after these reasons have been eliminated, China is the habitual residence of the taxpayer, that is, the individual belongs to the residence in China.

About 60 million Chinese citizens live overseas

 Some people say that I work overseas, if not Chinese state-owned enterprises, if not large Chinese companies abroad, but British companies, or Chinese small and micro-enterprises or companies, how can the country know where I work, and my income and property situation?

 There's away. China has announced that it will begin its seventh census on November 1,2020, targeting natural persons in china at the standard time point and Chinese citizens outside china who have not settled. The so-called settlement refers to the green card or permanent residence right.

 One of the priorities of the census was to clean up outstanding accounts. (Slippery and detailed at the end of the article)

 What is an unsold account? Many of the contents of the circular explained that: conscription into the army, overseas settlement, death, foreign nationality, etc. should be written off in accordance with the provisions of the account and not written off, it is defined as the account should be sold.

 That is to say, whether Chinese who have joined foreign nationality or Chinese who have settled overseas but still hold Chinese nationality may be canceled in this census.

 As soon as the census is over, which of the overseas Chinese tax-paying residents come to light. At present, Chinese state media reports that about 60 million Chinese citizens live overseas.

Pay up to 45% of personal income tax

 According to the relevant tax laws of China, residents are required to pay up to 45% of personal income tax according to the provisions of tax allowances and tax rates. The highest rate in Hong Kong is only one-third of that in mainland China, according to Bloomberg.

 China's vigorous enforcement of tax payments to Chinese citizens abroad means that Chinese citizens working abroad face enormous pressure to pay taxes. This pressure is even greater, especially when the national tax rate in the workplace is significantly lower than that in China.

 Of course, taxing the global income of residents is a more common practice internationally, and countries including Germany and the United States have relevant strict regulations.

 In Germany, for example, the failure to declare foreign income as required is illegal and requires criminal liability. China launched the revised regulations on the implementation of the personal income tax law at the end of 2018, which actually began to go into effect on January 1,2019, but has not yet been fully implemented.

 China's move is bound to cause panic among many foreign Chinese citizens, especially those with investment income overseas, who will pay a fortune if the new rules are strictly enforced.

 However, such an approach could result in a wealthy group of overseas Chinese simply emigrating and becoming nationals of the host country, thus avoiding a global tax on Chinese residents.

CNMOULDING thinks it's an important thing to know for all Chinese around the world. For your life and work, please make arrangements early.

An unprecedented 364 trillion yuan bubble

 Write in the beginning: struggle for decades to open the company, it is better to hype a suite! This is the joke of this era is also sad.

Even coronavirus has failed to stop the world's largest asset bubble from expanding.

 After a brief pause in the coronavirus blockade in February, China's property market, once considered unsustainable, resumed its climb. Although the economy is still not fully recovering, investors are trading hotly.
 In March this year, a new real estate development project in Shenzhen,288 apartments sold out in less than 8 minutes. A few days later, more than 400 homes in a new property in Suzhou were snapped up by buyers. It is estimated that Shanghai's second-hand housing sales in April are close to the highest level in history. On a Saturday last month, nearly 9,000 people each paid a down payment of $1 million to qualify for a property in Shenzhen.

"In March, when the market began to rebound, I had little time for lunch." Zhao Wenhao, Lianjia's agent in Shanghai, said. Lianjia is one of the largest real estate brokers in China. He said many customers were concerned that the yuan would depreciate in the face of a global slowdown, prompting more money to enter the housing market, which is seen as a safe haven.

 Many economists say the resulting asset bubble now outstrips the U.S. housing bubble of the first decade of the century. 

At the peak of the U.S. housing boom, about $900 billion was invested in residential property every year. In the previous 12 months, China's total investment in real estate was about $1.4 trillion. Last month, real estate investment in China exceeded any month since the record.
 According to Goldman Sachs Group, China's total inventory of housing and developers reached $52 trillion (364 trillion yuan) in 2019, twice the size of the U.S. housing market, or even more than the entire U.S. bond market.
 The stagnation of the housing market caused by the epidemic did not last long. Urban house prices rose 4.9% year-on-year in June. Despite a sharp drop in sales in February, investment in the first half of the year rose by 1.9%. On Thursday, the bureau said China's overall economy grew 3.2% in the second quarter.
 Evergrande, China's largest residential builder, has raised its sales target this year by 23% from January's expectations.

While the rapid recovery in the real estate market is, to some extent, good news for the central government.

the government has also drawn attention to some of the long-running worries. The central government has repeatedly issued policies to stop house prices from getting out of control. The phrase "houses are for the living, not for speculation" became the guiding mantra of government housing policy.
 However, it is not easy for people to take this information seriously. China's home sales have experienced a decade of rapid growth driven by borrowing, with a record household leverage of 57.7% in the first quarter of this year. This is the largest quarterly increase in the ratio since the first quarter of 2010, which measures the ratio of household mortgages, consumer loans and other loans to GDP.
 At the heart of China's problem is that buyers already understand that the government seems unwilling to let the market fall. If house prices do fall sharply, this will destroy the main source of wealth for most people and may trigger unrest.
 This gives the Chinese with enough money the incentive to continue buying, because they believe that real estate in big cities will remain the safest investment in China, regardless of the overall economic situation.
 "Real estate hijacked China's economy, so the government is afraid to push home prices down, even if this is the most effective way to curb the bubble," Chen said he works for a retailer and plans to buy a property in Shenzhen.
 "You have to follow the money," he said,37. He added that he had raised the budget for real estate spending since the outbreak pushed house prices up. "As long as the government starts printing money, asset prices will rise. In China, only housing prices will continue to soar.

No one is sure how the government will solve the problem without undermining overall economic stability.

Cash-strapped developers and local governments selling land to them have also boosted sales. Both require increased revenue to pay off debt and additional policy measures have been developed to that end.
 No one is sure how the government will solve the problem without undermining overall economic stability. Policymakers have had to postpone more aggressive stimulus plans, though some economists say it is necessary, in part because of fears that they will push home prices higher.
 The results of a survey of Chinese household finance conducted by the southwest university of finance and economics in Chengdu also confirm the concern that demand for real estate is rising mostly among people who already own housing, while the demand for real estate has not changed much among those without housing.
 This is a sign of speculative investment, says Gan Li, a professor of economics at Texas A & M University and a Chinese family finance expert.
 "Speculative demand is rising because people think real estate is a safer asset than the stock market," he said. They think it's for sure. Because of the epidemic, they actually consume less and save more. so they have more money to invest. This will create a bigger housing problem ."

According to the latest data from the China Household Financial Survey, in 2017, about 21% of housing units in Chinese cities were vacant, that is, about 65 million units, which is very high compared with international standards.

 The vacancy rate was 39.4 % among households with two properties and 48.2 % among households with three or more properties.
 In big cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Chengdu, the rate of return on rent (the proportion of annual rental income to the value of the real estate) is less than 2%, which is lower than the rate of return on buying Chinese government bonds.
 Still, Ms. Bishan, a 42-year-old English teacher, said the outbreak prompted her plans to invest in a second home in Shenzhen ahead of schedule because she feared inflation. "You have to invest your money somewhere, or you'll lose value ." She said.
 Tao duo, another buyer, said she and her husband signed a contract to buy a second home in Shanghai in early May. His purchase of the home, located in the ideal school district, could increase her 3-year-old son's chances of entering a good primary school.
 "We've been watching closely for months. Normally, these homes are robbed as soon as they go public," said Tao duo,32. She decided to buy the house the next day after watching it. "We were lucky to get this. The broker's boss said that on the night we signed the contract, the company got another full offer from another client ."
 Part of the reason some economists worry is that Chinese real estate is rising so fast, and it is continuing to climb even when the economy is under pressure.

By the end of last year, about 96 percent of Chinese urban households had at least one home, well above 65 percent of U.S. housing ownership, according to a survey released by the central bank in April.

 In some ways, this prosperity has achieved Beijing's goals. It has boosted economic growth and created wealth for millions of middle-class Chinese families. Local governments must hand over a large part of the income tax to the central government, but they also receive additional income from selling land to developers.
 But the housing boom has taken investment money from other industries. It also saddled many families with debt. According to the Bank for International Settlements, China accounted for about 57% of the $11.6 trillion increase in household loans worldwide between 2009 and 2019. The United States accounts for about 19%.
 Prices in some Chinese cities have reached levels comparable to those in some of the world's most expensive cities. According to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the average house price level in China reached 9.3 times per capita income in 2018, compared with 8.4 times in San Francisco.
 In Tianjin, where 15 million people live, apartments in upscale locations are priced at about 60,000 yuan per square meter, according to Real Estate Service No .1 Pacific Davis. Although London's disposable income is seven times that of tianjin, it is roughly the equivalent of what an average homebuyer pays in some expensive parts of London.

local governments are under pressure to prevent further house prices from soaring, they are more worried about a sharp drop in prices

In essence, Chinese urban residents put everything on their own houses. They now have nearly 78% of their wealth tied to residential property, up from 35% in the US.
 When the coronavirus began to spread in China, many economists and property experts worried that the peak of real estate had arrived. Housing sales fell 36% in the first two months of 2020, compared with a year ago, and many cash-strapped real estate companies were pushed to the brink. As of June 5, more than 200 small developers had filed for bankruptcy, state media reported.
 After that, larger developers and local governments launched incentives to attract buyers back. At least 26 of China's 32 provinces and regions have introduced policies to boost the property market since February, including easing down payment requirements and home purchase subsidies, according to Huatai Securities.
 "While local governments are under pressure to prevent further house prices from soaring, they are more worried about a sharp drop in prices," said Gao Fei, general manager of property company Zhongyuan Group. They can't afford the consequences of the market falling. According to the Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, in 2019, the proportion of land transfer income and related taxes on developers to local government income reached 52.9%, a record high.

As a china mold maker, I think most Chinese will invest their wealth in real estate during the downturn. "The worse China's economy gets," he said ." The higher the prices in Shenzhen and other places ."

US cut off the US dollar supply of Chinese banks! ?

What will happen after the US cut off the US dollar supply of Chinese banks

The United States dollar has the property of world currency because it has the highest utilization rate in international trade. As of March 2020, the United States dollar accounted for 44.1 percent of international trade settlements, while the euro ranked second was only 30.84 percent. Now, however, the U.S. is intent on cutting its own arm from allowing Chinese banks to get dollars and use them to settle accounts, potentially jeopardizing its dominance.

The US bill's proponents envisage that, by the end of 2019, China's four largest state-owned banks had $1.1 trillion in dollar-denominated debt, due to foreign trade transactions and foreign investment by Chinese companies, a small difference from the size of their dollar assets, are facing a shortage of dollars. Cutting off the dollar would deprive Chinese banks of the possibility of using the international reserve currency and could even prevent Chinese companies operating overseas from settling dollars. At that time," China's foreign trade will naturally decrease ".

China is the world's second-largest economy, with a total import and export trade of 31.54 trillion yuan in 2019, and the huge scale of trade settlement has made the United States dare not cut off the supply of dollars. Because if the United States does not allow Chinese banks to use dollars, then the use of the dollar is likely to drop sharply, and its dominance will be seriously challenged.

 China is also the second-largest lender overseas. According to U.S. statistics, in April, China reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasuries by $8.8 billion to $1.0728 trillion. Once China decides not to use dollar assets, the hedging role of holding dollar bonds will also be meaningless. By then, China's massive sell-off of dollar assets is likely to bring the dollar-led international financial system to a standstill.

The process of RMB internationalization is accelerating. So instead of the dollar, the use of the renminbi, the euro and other trade settlements will rise, and the renminbi will accelerate internationalization. The Central Bank of Turkey announced on June 19 that companies that have paid for imports from China through the Bank since June 18 will be settled in renminbi. In addition, the world's three major iron ore giants have also achieved RMB settlement with Chinese enterprises. All foreign trade manufacturing enterprises, including our plastic injection molding company, hope to maintain good relations between China and the United States. Of course, it's a national event, not something we little people need to worry about. But now that China-US relations are so bad, it is only because the United States needs elections.

The United States is inseparable from Hong Kong？！

If you agree or disagree Please tell us

Sanctions are sanctions, the United States can not do without Hong Kong

There will be no differential treatment between Hong Kong and mainland China from now on. Well, that's not surprising.

 A month and a half ago, Trump said he would impose three sanctions on Hong Kong:

 ◎ First, restrictions on the export of sensitive technologies;

 ◎2. To abolish the treatment of Hong Kong Special Customs Areas;

 ◎ Third, seek further financial blows.

 The three sanctions are aimed at Hong Kong's two key identities: a free trade port and an offshore financial center.

 But in fact, the United States can not determine Hong Kong's "special tariff zone" status, it can only determine its own tariffs with Hong Kong.

 Tariffs in Hong Kong, due to the "principle of origin" in U.S. trade accounting, are also limited to Hong Kong's local production of goods exported to the United States (i.e., goods not considered transit to Hong Kong exports ").

As we all know, there is not much manufacturing left in Hong Kong.

 Last year, only HK $3.7 billion was exported to the United States, or 0.1 percent of Hong Kong's total exports. Now that the U.S. says it wants to impose the same tariffs on Hong Kong as on the mainland, it's very small for both sides.

 But hong kong also has a more important identity —— offshore financial centers. Offshore finance, in simple terms, serves mainly non-local customers.

 *Note: Many people think that the "offshore" of offshore financial centers refers to the fact that Hong Kong is offshore relative to the Mainland, but rather to the fact that the main customers are offshore relative to Hong Kong (not local). So Shanghai can also build the offshore RMB market.

 Hong Kong is the third-largest dollar market, the second-largest renminbi market outside the mainland, and the world's money goes in and out of Hong Kong.

 So can the US influence Hong Kong's offshore financial center status? This raises two questions: where the offshore money comes from and where it goes.

 Where does the money come from

 There are three main sources of money in offshore financial centers:

 tax avoidance funds 

1. transnational corporations and transnational capital;

2. of asylum-seeking funds from powerful and powerful nations;

3. all kinds of illegal and criminal proceeds of money.

 The first category is tax avoidance funds. Corporate tax avoidance and capital operations are tricky, but the core logic is to transfer profits to low-tax offshore tax havens, clean up, and then transfer money to the financial industry developed investment-friendly offshore financial centers

We give a concrete example to help you understand. For example! For example! The numbers are all written in vain! )

 Some friends may know that Ireland is an important offshore tax haven for Apple.

 Assuming Apple is going to sell one in France for 1000 euros iPhone, the costs of production, transportation, advertising, and so on, plus the money the agent makes, is assumed to be 500 euros, and the remaining 500 euros is pre-tax profits.

 But corporate income tax rates are high in some European countries, such as France, where rates for large companies are as high as 33.33%.

 But Apple certainly didn't want to pay high taxes, so it set up a subsidiary in Ireland to license all the technology and patents of American head office to the subsidiary, and then pay the Irish subsidiary a royalty of iPhone 300 euros per unit by a French subsidiary. Why 300 euros so much? No why, buy yourself and sell yourself.

 As a result, the French side of the cost of more than 300 euros, pre-tax profits left only 200 euros, in France naturally pay a lot less tax.

 (re-emphasize that the numbers in this are all casual, and we understand the logic. ).

The second category is grey funding, with the largest sources being Russia, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America. 

The governance capacity of these countries is problematic, especially in the Middle East and Latin America. Some places are still in the state of former modernization, but often rich in resources, the most representative is oil resources.

 There is a characteristic of the income brought by the resource industry, that is, it is highly concentrated in power, so it is difficult to drive the common prosperity of the society.

 The result, on the one hand, is that those who hold power in these regions and countries are extremely rich and the money is very easy to come by; on the other hand, there is a hidden danger that wealth derived from power can easily be lost along with power, whether it is the failure of political struggle, the change of regime or the change of political-business relations, etc., which can lead to the destruction of everything.

 Therefore, the powerful and oligarchs in these places have never invested their money in their own countries, but prefer to get the money out and store it in the major offshore financial centers.

 These funds may not be defined as proceeds of crime, but to be honest, they may not be completely clean, so they are called grey funds.

The third category is the simplest: completely black money. 

For example, corrupt officials embezzled money, such as international drug trafficking, arms smuggling, human trafficking, organ trafficking, illegal immigration and other criminal proceeds, and even some terrorist funds.

 Anyway, that's black money. There's nothing to say.

 There is a commonality in these three types of money, that is, the requirement of convenience is much higher than the requirement of investment income, especially in the latter two, because of the problem of coming, it will also attach the extremely high requirement of confidentiality and security, and the requirement of investment income is little.

 So, for financial institutions that receive and provide management services, the money is extremely cheap, a piece of fat, and an important reason why these institutions in offshore financial centers can make a lot of money.

China and the United States have great interests in London, Britain and the United States have great interests in Hong Kong, as for New York, can not afford it. This led to the three families do not care about each other.

 Now we should understand that the real offshore, not on the Swiss such "permanently neutral" slogan and position, but on the strength of the great powers. The international community, after all, comes first.

 If you take a step further, you should also understand that Hong Kong's position as an offshore financial center is very stable, because it is not China, but the United States, that needs Hong Kong most. The U. S. has few major destinations overseas, including London and Hong Kong, including Mexico City and Tokyo.

 The money will not go back to the United States, and even if Trump drastically reduces the tax on capital return, there will not be much to go back. After all, the United States is an iron capitalist, the president of running water, what if in a few years to change a tax-loving president to come up?

 So if the U.S. strikes Hong Kong, it's trade and society. As for financial instruments, they are not easy targets for the time being. Coupled with this year's epidemic, international capital is more confident in Hong Kong.

 This is the offshore financial center, where most of the wealth stored and managed comes from the less glorious side of the world, and it is precisely because of the less glorious, so contains excess profits, so that each of them is bright and rich. Maybe that's the face of the world.

How does individual investment seek advantages and avoid disadvantages?

The total confrontation between China and the United States, reconstruction of the world order, How does individual investment seek advantages and avoid disadvantages?

 The people who can make money in this half-year, I feel very difficult, most people are losing money. Every one of us is actually very weak, many of our choices, judgments, entrepreneurship, the investment can not be separated from whether we can follow this era, follow this society, follow this trend if we follow, then we have a lot of opportunities, if we go against, or not been aware of, we will be very difficult.

But you may still have a chance to go to other countries, you still play some of your original advantages, but you from your main battlefield, from China to Southeast Asia.

 We can foresee that there will always be more bad news than good news for some time to come because now the United States has confirmed the need to confront China.

This becomes a confrontation of all sides. In such a broad context, because the United States does not represent just one country, it represents a number of developed countries that maybe the mainstream of the West.

 We invest and do business, and we're sure to get a very big impact. What kind of changes will occur below this situation, we need to have an early warning.

 Capital is the smartest when markets are in turmoil. I read a report that in some countries around the world in the first half of this year, the only thing that can achieve positive growth is Vietnam. Why?

Because a large number of industries and capital have been transferred from China to Vietnam, especially now after the confrontation between China and the United States, some of the original production enterprises, processing enterprises, export enterprises, foreign trade enterprises have moved many of their factories to Vietnam.

 Like I usually live in Guangzhou and the Pearl River Delta this feeling is particularly strong, I recently have some friends to make clothing, building materials, they basically have to consider moving the factory to Vietnam.

 Because in China, if he does it again, it's basically not competitive in the global market.

 The shift in capital to Southeast Asia is a trend that I think is probably just beginning.

 Because of the confrontation between China and the United States is not a year or two, I think it is at least 15 to 20 years of one thing. So what kind of outcome will emerge in 15 to 20 years, and what is the impact on China itself? We don't predict, but because it's hard to predict, what's the only thing we want to do as capital in this environment, or as investors? It's safe.

our mold factory and injection molding company is not suitable to move to southeast Asia, engineers and technicians are not easy to move, and there are no matching manufacturers, so we will choose to insist, but there is no denying that many industries with low technology content are accelerating to leave china.

Money is no longer loose, stocks continue to rise

 10 days ago, My blog judged that the Chinese stock is going to rise,10 days later the stock is up 20%, please continue to hold the stock, and will continue to rise.

In the last week, the stock market did get a little excited, although it fell on Friday, the whole week is soaring, the Shanghai index rose 7.31% a week, the GEM rose 12.83%. So the news of cooling the stock market, also in-ear.

 At the press conference, a spokesman for the CBRC stressed:" At present, it is particularly necessary to strengthen the supervision of the flow of funds, regulate cross-market fund exchanges and business cooperation, strictly prohibit banks and insurance institutions from illegally participating in over-the-counter allocation of funds, strictly investigate the indiscriminate use of leverage and speculation, prevent the creation of asset bubbles, ensure the real flow of financial resources to the most needed areas and links in the real economy, and guide the flow of funds to the real. Speaking of future risk challenges, the spokesman said that some market chaos rebounded, high-risk shadow banks resurrected, some with new forms and new features attempted to return. Corporate, household and other sectors of leverage increased. Some of the money went into the housing market, pushing up the asset bubble. So some people began to panic again, it seems to hear a little bit of bad news recently, first of all, the SFC matching, national team reduction, the central bank financial data is not expected, this cbrc began to pour cold water, what exactly mean?

In addition to the central bank's financial data, it does represent that the currency is no longer loose, a few other news is no shadow of the matter, the matching funds have already been checked out, and this wave of rising has nothing to do with it, national team exit, strategic is larger and very small, is the daily operation, the CBRC this statement, is completely cliche, which he almost always said. Corporate household sector leverage ratio increased, with the stock market has no relationship with the gross, the flow of funds irregularities, is obviously more risky property market. Take business loans and repeated mortgage to buy a lot of housing, and speculation almost no, the market burst to now, a total of half a month, you even a set of loan procedures are not finished, so do not rush. Secondly, some things you have to listen to, like an exam, the invigilator repeatedly stressed, strict prevention of cheating, originally want to cheat, also put away the note. That is to say, there is a great difference between pre-regulation and post-regulation, the results of pre-regulation are true and effective, and after-regulation to deduct water. The CBRC now emphasizes that it is strictly prohibited for banks and insurance institutions to participate in off-site capital allocation and strictly investigate and increase the speculation of leverage, which shows that this wave of the market has nothing to do with leverage. Third, why does the market always scare people with this bullshit news? That shows that catering to the mentality of investors, most investors do not want to rise, do not believe that this is the Daniel market. Show that the market is still hesitant, in hesitation, investors are still waiting for the market to cool down, and then get on. It also shows that there are still a lot of OTC funds. At the end of the bull market, the news won't come out at all, because no one believes that everyone will say a word, the state will not let the stock market fall, the stock market will fall the economy is over. So, on the whole, we are actually very happy to see this news, the more negative news, the more suspicious the investor mentality, because the media are all crowd, the media know what everyone wants to see, so will push out what everyone wants to see, interesting things, but this is actually the reverse indicator of investment. It's just one of the signs that the market has no end. Bad news, combined with a mid-term adjustment, would scare off most investors. Any time the market has always been like this, the vast majority of people are 3 yuan to buy,4 yuan sold, bag for security, and so on callback, and then rose to 8 yuan, can not sit down, began to raise more funds, to 9 yuan really can not help but rush in, the result of 10 yuan to the top, instantly fell to 4-5 yuan, the last small money did make a little, but eventually big money, but lost half.

 Finally, as a financial mold maker to highlight, although I look short on the property market, see more stock market, but also do not advocate selling house speculation, let alone recommend borrowing money speculation, no matter how high the stock market, this is a no return road, any big bull market, there are countless returns in the middle, sometimes the retreat is very scary

What is the gap between rich and poor in China?

Red light? What is the gap between rich and poor? Official figures give you "answers"

No matter who will try to protect their wealth. But have you ever noticed that the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer?

At the international level, the Gini coefficient is usually used to measure the income gap between national and regional residents. As early as 2003 to 2008, China's Gini coefficient "red light," more than the internationally recognized 0.4" warning line.

 In fact, as early as 2012 Yang Ma and Southwest University of Finance and Economics released a set of data has aroused heated discussion among netizens, but also let everyone know how big the income gap. As of August 2011, the average assets of Chinese urban households were 2.476 million yuan, and that of rural households was 377000 yuan, according to the China Household Financial Survey, published jointly by Southwest University of Finance and Economics and Yang Ma. It can be seen that the wealth gap between urban and rural families is not small.

 In addition, although the average assets of urban households as high as 2.476 million yuan, but the median is only 405000 yuan, the difference between the two is about 2.07 million. It is concluded that there is not only a gap between urban and rural areas but also a large gap between urban families.

In addition, from the data published by the National Bureau of Statistics, we can also see one or two. According to the 2019 national economic and social development statistics bulletin issued by the National Bureau of Statistics, the disposable income of residents in urban areas in 2019 is 423.59 million yuan. In contrast, the disposable income of residents in rural areas is 16021 yuan, which is far lower than that of residents in urban areas.

In fact, the big income gap is not new. Although everyone is hard work, like the star kind of special occupation, the income is high scary, there are many stars casually make a play to earn money is ordinary people can not earn a few lives.

 In fact, we do not have to over-interpret the gap between rich and poor, after all, this is a very common social phenomenon. Moreover, the gap has gradually narrowed in recent years. This can be seen from the data released by Yang Ma some time ago, the data show that the total assets of urban households in China are 3.179 million yuan, the median is 1.63 million yuan, the difference between the two is 1.54 million, which is obviously less than 2012.

In fact, income is high and low, not measured by wages. None of the real money-makings is done by wage income, basically by asset appreciation. This is Cnmoulding, a mold maker, even after 20 years of hard work or can not afford a favorite house, because I ignore asset investment.

Bad economy! Why did the stock market take advantage of the storm?

 2020/7/6, the stock market can be described as soaring, the Shanghai index rose 5.71%, the two markets traded 1.5 trillion, more than 200 stocks trading limit, this increase has not been seen for five years, even the stock market has risen on the news broadcast.

From the disk the bull market vane, securities firms have been three days in a row.

 many stocks are the continuous trading limit, banks and insurance are also obviously driven by funds, experienced investors know that these three big guys move, often foreshadowing the market. A lot of people ask Lao Qi, is the bull market coming? Why is there a bull market if the economy is bad? First of all, in fact, the bull market has already come, in 2019, A shares have been up for a year, the Shanghai Stock Exchange index has risen 22% in 2019, this half-year has risen 9%, the gem has risen 44% in 2019, and this year has risen 40%, if this is not a bull market, then really do not know what is a bull market. The right side of the market has been very obvious. I understand what you mean. You want to ask, are there any mad cows in 2007 and 2015? It's hard to say if we' re coming, we've been emphasizing structural bull markets, and we' re going to have to look further, at least in my heart, to see if the mad bull market is coming. So there is no essential difference between a real cow and a buffalo, and they end up as pit bulls. There is no bull market, no pit.

The stock market is a leading indicator of the economy, but it can not be predicted by the economy. The stock market reflects the expectations of investors in the economy. The key point is that the expectation is not the economy, so the expectations in the first half of the year are so bad that you will be excited by a slight improvement. Just like today's college entrance examination, high achiever is in the heart of the test Tsinghua, the result only on a Jiaotong University, he will be very lost, and low achiever's psychological expectation is to have a three on the line, the result of the test a two, he is twice excited. So although the results are very different, the mood of the two people is completely different. The same is true of the stock market when people think too pessimistic about the future, the stock market will rise because the sale has been sold, a bit of bottom money will rise. On the contrary, when people think of the future too well, should buy all, a few people sell, no one to pick up.

Third, from the current economic cycle, belong to the recovery cycle,

 from the investment of 6 stages, belong to stage 4, from the financial cycle, the current wide credit wide interest rate cycle, these three-cycle resonance, are beneficial to the stock market. Corporate profits rebounded, social financing rebounded, the economy slowly climbed from the bottom of the pit, the second quarter should be able to turn positive, before the end of the year to return to the same period last year. So investment expectations are improving. In addition, the bond market stall, most of the city's property market cooling, nowhere to go, for the stock market to provide a steady stream of capital support.

Fourth, the national level needs a bull market, to play equity financing call

the symbol of creditor's rights financing is real estate, the symbol of equity financing is the stock market, if we want to develop the real economy and develop high technology, we must vigorously develop equity financing, so that more venture capital has a normal exit path, more and better assets can be listed and financed, these all need a huge capital market. So the stock market after the big rise, on the news broadcast, this has a strong signal significance. illustrate this stage, is fully supported for the stock market. However, we should also remind you, do not be happy too early, think that crazy cattle market, you can make money, on the contrary, for the vast majority of people, may be the beginning of the loss. Stock market this thing, like farming, also need spring planting summer long, autumn harvest winter Tibet, if you do not plant spring, now can only buy chips from others at a high price. My cost in the market 2800, your cost in 3300, then how do you play with me? I'm making money to stop my earnings, and your fault tolerance rate is very low. Last wave of bull market, the final cover, heavy losses, basically more than 4000 points to enter the stock market. By this time, value investors are almost doubling. So, this is why I don't like mad cow, originally very good growth, will be helped by some speculators break the trend, let the market short-term rise is very high, we also need to passively turn to defense.

People always think that bear market is very dangerous, and bull market is very safe

 closed eyes can make money, in fact, big mistake, the real safety is bear market, you close your eyes to buy everything is right, take a few years can make money, the most risky is just bull market, most industries are now in the median valuation, that is, you have to use more expensive price to buy. So, the more this time, the more careful, but also to learn. Take the wrong step, and there's no return. As for the final judgment, we still stick to the point that the structural bull market must have begun, more optimistic about growth and cycle, as to whether the overall bull market has come, this is still to be seen. Before the wobble point of the situation is also a lot, such as the beginning of 2013, is also the brokerage looks to start, the result rose for two months, and then not up. There was no bull market. So, or old Qi often said that sentence, whatever his market, first do your own thing, you just follow us, in the spring, that is ,2018 to plant the land, waiting for autumn harvest on the line. It's just about making more and less. Buddha at this time a little, with a grateful heart, see how big the market can give you red envelopes. And if you don't plant land in spring, you should not be radical, but conservative. You need to quickly build a defensive and offensive combination, if late, I am afraid there is no chance.

Inflation happens, who wins

With the development of the times, the source of income of our people has become diversified, and the total amount of wealth has been increasing. One of the biggest "changes" is our people's "view of money ", compared to more than ten years ago, a great change has taken place.

 As we all know, our residents are very keen to save money. In particular, our "older generation" residents, basically have "idle money" that will exist in the bank.

 China's major banks in order to collect deposits will also give a variety of preferential policies. It is not only safe to keep money in the bank, but also certain interests can be taken. That is why our people like to keep money in banks. According to the data released by the central bank, at the end of 2019, the balance of deposits in the household sector .household sector was 82.14 trillion yuan.

But in recent years people have found a problem, is to put money in the interest of the bank but failed to "win" inflation, resulting in their own savings, purchasing power has become less.

 Just like ten thousand yuan a decade ago, it was a huge sum of money. At that time, it could buy a lot of things, even a few square meters. But the purchasing power of $10,000 has fallen sharply from 10 years ago. This is the influence of inflation, which can "steal" our wealth in the invisible. And the interest we deposit in the bank is often not enough to "offset" the effects of inflation.

In this case, many people are beginning to worry about the impact of inflation on themselves, have come up with ways to "keep" their wealth.

 In fact, inflation occurs all the time, benign inflation can play a positive role; and hyperinflation will have a significant impact on our lives.

 In recent years, people's cognition of inflation is increasing, but it also causes many people's "panic ". So, if large-scale inflation does occur, who loses the most wealth? And who will be the winner?

 In theory, with inflation, anyone's wealth shrinks. When the rich and the "poor ", will become victims, assets together shrink. But because the wealth base of the rich is relatively large, so in the case of the same "wealth decline ", the rich will lose more wealth.

 Just like a rich man has 1 million yuan, while another "poor man" has only 10,000 yuan. But under the influence of inflation, their wealth fell by 50% together, the rich left 500000 yuan, and the "poor" left only 5000 yuan. Although it appears that the rich have lost half a million yuan of wealth, and the "poor" have lost only 5000 yuan, the proportion of their wealth remains unchanged.

So under the influence of inflation, everyone's assets will shrink, and the rich may lose more money. But even so, the rich and the poor still have "essential differences ".

 And under the influence of hyperinflation, growers of agricultural products may gain from it. Because in any case, agricultural products are "basic supplies" that everyone needs. Even if people do not want houses, gold, jewelry, but food, and other things that people must "fight for" things.

At that time, the price of such items will continue to rise. And grain growers, too, will benefit greatly. This year, we must have also realized the importance of food, vegetables and so on, in the special period of these things, prices will change dramatically.

Real Japanese food and beverage industry！

 Turnover fell 90%, the owner of Beijing Daily Material Store:" My I signed a loan of 5 million, my hands trembled."

It has been 22 days since the discovery of new cases of new coronavirus in Beijing. With the control of the epidemic in Beijing, the restaurant industry that resumed work experienced a brief stagnation and reopened.

 The 15-year-old Japanese sushi brand Edo has not been spared. In the context of Beijing's second wave of outbreaks, net-borne salmon infections have pushed the store, which has signs of recovery, down again. The 44-year-old brand founder, Jiang Bingsheng, is also under great pressure.

 Only the first wave of the epidemic has closed seven or eight stores so that stores lost millions. Now he can only rely on bank loans to fill the current hole.

 On July 1st, experts at the Chinese center for disease control responded again that "no infectious diseases have been found to have been transmitted to humans through fish ", but most restaurants still choose to stop selling fresh dishes.

 Off the shelf fresh, the Japanese restaurant lost the characteristics, but also did not wait for the return of diners.

 Chinese people stop eating Japanese food

Before Edo in Beijing, there were 16 stores, the first epidemic period one after another closed half, now only seven or eight stores left.

 For me, big waves have been experienced, but the epidemic caused us to lose so much is really unimaginable. The turnover of stores in Beijing is only 5-10% of normal turnover, slightly better in the field but also down about 40%

 During the first epidemic, we can rely on take-out, or through my live broadcast to bring goods to sell some semi-finished products, so that the restaurant turns.

 Our turnover has been gradually recovering over the last few months, almost 90% before the outbreak. Individual stores have resumed operations better than pre-infectious turnover. Employees are full load state, the purchase is a full load.

 During the reduced passenger flow, we can only braise raw fish or make soup, the price of dishes is also reduced accordingly. At that time can not pursue profit. As long as the turnover comes in, we promise to pay the suppliers and pay the employees, we can survive

 But the outbreak in Beijing has sealed almost all roads. Consumers do not choose daily materials, browse the take-out platform, and even see the daily materials on the slide screen past.

 Looking back on the night of June 12, I was shocked to see the news "New Crown Virus Found on the Plane of Cut Salmon ".

 I'm an insider, I know more about salmon, I' m more sure the board is contaminated, not salmon has coronavirus, so I sent my opinion in the circle of friends. The media has also been naming salmon, but many customers have canceled booking orders.

Raw food concerns hit consumers' consumer psychology

 A blow directly embedded in his beliefs. One of the guests to order with our staff said that before coming to Edo to eat raw fish sushi, now choose to eat Chinese food will be safer.

 In the face of avoiding eating cold statement, I feel like fist hit on cotton do not know how to do. This is a big blow to us. I have a pre-judgment, we certainly dare not eat daily materials, and the future daily materials store will be greatly affected.

 On the night of June 12, I contacted the supplier because the outbreak caused the restaurant to be unable to open normally, hoping to cancel the order, and they all agreed and understood.

 But the most serious loss is shrimp and crab and frozen products can not be sold, has been put, a lot of money backlog. Food and beverage are to rely on water to support the store, if there is no blood flow, it will definitely die.

 Our cash flow is very difficult. Before the epidemic we have persisted for 5 months, now again, the specific persistence of a few months is also unknown.

 The average monthly payment is in millions and the payback period with the supplier is 45 days. Before the Spring Festival, we prepared a lot of goods, that lot of food materials expired are wasted. Because the epidemic has not been open, so can not pay with suppliers, has been a state of delay.

 Store operating costs are also very large, the first outbreak, take Beijing store as an example, we lost millions in four months.

 Operators are starting to doubt life

I felt helpless and began to wonder what I had done wrong. Why did I go from being a very good company with very good results to being in negative debt and having to borrow from banks, and then I had to repay all the losses and loans during the epidemic for three to five or ten years.

 The most money I ever borrowed from a bank during the outbreak was 5 million. Before the turnover, performance is very good, will not worry about not yet. But this time in the process of mortgage signing, my hands are shaking. The loan is to leave the store, is completely filled in, suddenly feel insecure, very helpless.

 Now we are more taboo on raw food, to order customers are more inclined to order packages, so we need to rearrange the menu, more to provide cooked food to consumers.

 Edo before the original customers to 60,70, the main age is over 40 years old. They have accumulated a certain amount of wealth, the quality of food requirements are relatively high, acceptable prices are also higher. But during the epidemic, it can also be said that they are more life-saving, unwilling to come out to consume. Real active consumption, almost all in the post-90s young people.

 We have two or three stores in succession, trying to move towards the house of wine. The price of the menu is also going down. Environmental factors have to be changed, sushi single shop decoration light is warm, but the house to create a relatively lively feeling, light is also dim. After doing some barbecue, business hours will be extended to 1 am.

 I'm sorry about the transition from a high-end sushi restaurant to a house of wine. Change is painful, not change is more painful.

People in the whole industry are doubting life, and so are our injection mold makers. This year, the government began tax cuts to protect small and medium-sized enterprises, but at the same time after a large number of currency issuance, the market's assets have risen sharply, fighting to run so many years can not buy a house they want.