2020年8月9日星期日

Internal circulation? let the annual salary of 1.6 million talented girls all sigh that the house price will change?

   Some graduate salary 4,000, some graduate annual salary 2 million...

 Recently, the Huawei "genius teenager" program has blown up a lot of people's circle of friends —— the specific content of this plan, is to provide excellent graduates with a maximum annual salary of 2 million yuan!

  Just graduated with a million annual salary really suck eyes, but really to get this money, or rely on real skills.

 Since December last year, three "talented teenagers" have been shortlisted by Huazhong University of Science and Technology alone.

 One of them is Yao Ting. She is also the only girl, starting salary of 1.56 million yuan a year.


 But Yao Ting said the following passage in the face of the interview:

 "Don't feel how,1.56 million annual salaries, in the housing price of 100,000 square meters in Shenzhen, feel very difficult to do something ."

 Of course, Yao Ting this sentence although looks a little pull hatred, but the intention may be modest. But the cabbage thought carefully, feeling that she is also quite reasonable.

Suppose you want to buy a 100 square meter house, the total price is about 10 million. Down payment 3 million, loan 7 million.

 Yao Ting earns 1.56 million a year, about a million, buy a 100 square meter house, three years to pay a down payment. It seems to be easy, but the monthly repayment of 45000 yuan, but also to consume at least a third of the monthly salary.

 That is to say, even if such a social elite, want to buy a very ordinary 100 square meters house in Shenzhen, also have to fight for more than 10 years. A little more comfortable, I am afraid I have to run for more than 20 years of struggle.

 Of course, the unit price of 10 yuan / square meter in Shenzhen is not so mainstream. That is the price-focused on by a million-year-old girl.

 Today with this story, pakchoi does not want to say Shenzhen's property market problem, but want to tell you, the house and house prices to young people how much pressure!

 Recent policy has a lot of news, but also conveyed some new signals against the property market.

 The contradiction between Internal Circulation Policy and House Price

 At the high-level meeting of the CPC Central Committee on July 31, the word "internal circulation" was again mentioned:

 Many of the problems we encounter are medium- and long-term, and we must understand them from the perspective of protracted war and speed up the formation of a new development pattern in which the domestic and international cycles are the main body and the domestic and international cycles promote each other.

 The so-called "inner cycle" is relative to the "outer cycle ". I believe everyone knows that the economic troika ——" investment, consumption, export ". The inner exit is the outer cycle, while the consumption is the inner cycle.

 The former global economy, a highly globalized economy, has a division of labor between countries, and we exchange needs through trade.

 But the current international situation "reverse globalization" trend is obvious, we have to reduce their foreign trade dependence. So we have to start the "inner loop ".

  The so-called internal circulation, that is, products from production to consumption are dependent on domestic. In vernacular, internal circulation is three words: self-production, self-marketing, self-use, increasing domestic demand, is the core of the internal circulation economy.

 However, the current domestic consumption environment is not very beneficial to the internal cycle.

 One of the biggest impacts is real estate.

 High house prices have wiped out many families'" six wallets ", making the savings rate continue to decline and debt continue to rise. The common people have no surplus grain, where there is money to support consumption?

 The Central Bank Survey Statistics Division previously released the 2019 China Urban Household assets and liabilities Survey disclosed that housing loans are the main components of household liabilities, accounting for 75.9% of the total household liabilities.

   If it comes to life, for the vast majority of households, this data also means that the bulk of income is firmly occupied by monthly payments, resulting in very little cash available.

 On the other hand, housing prices themselves hurt manufacturing.

 For example, assuming that the high-end manufacturing industry has a profit of 5% a year, but a year's profit of house prices can reach 10% or even 20%, do you think companies will engage in R & D or buy a house?

 Look at the companies that sell houses and turn losses. There are many realistic examples.

 Moreover, high house prices make companies have to pay higher wages to attract talent. This also directly caused the increase of manufacturing labor costs, preempting R & D and other funds, hindering the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry.

 As a mold and injection molding company, we also feel that the house price is too high, the personnel can not stay, the enterprise simply can not improve their technical level.

The forum clearly stressed:" attach great importance to the new situation and new problems in the current real estate market, always tighten the string of real estate regulation and control ", and put forward "housing not speculation "," housing not stimulating "," prevent the flow of funds into the real estate market "," play the role of fiscal and taxation policy" and other means.


 But overall can see, property market policy is a word ——" steady ".

 In the inner cycle, not only the consumer end of the pull but also the industrial end. Real estate, as an important industry, is also very important for the driving role of the industrial chain.

 After all, the real estate industry is not a simple small industry, itself is a complex combination, construction projects led to the employment of migrant workers, land income led to local income, building materials supply and led to the development of related industries. Led a large number of job opportunities, but also produced a certain distribution of wealth.

 Lian Ping, chief economist and director of the research institute, pointed out that the inner cycle of real estate will play a more supportive role, first of all, because the real estate industry has a very important role in the development of the inner cycle. The future contribution of the real estate industry to GDP is obvious. The real estate industry has a great pull on consumption and investment, and the driving effect on other industries is also very obvious.

 According to estimates, usually real estate GDP for each additional unit can pull industry 0.4 units, financial industry 0.2 units, wholesale and retail 0.1 units.

 Secondly, new urbanization gives birth to new opportunities in the real estate market. In the next decade, the construction of the new urbanization is crucial to China's economic development. The future development of urban agglomeration and metropolitan area is relatively large, which will inevitably lead to greater demand growth in these regions, including real estate demand.

   Therefore, on the whole, real estate must restrain overheating, but not too cold; house prices must be reduced to a moderate level, so as to play its role in promoting and inhibiting the negative impact of its drag on the internal cycle.

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