2020年6月27日星期六

Has the Chinese economy recovered

The Secret Behind Sales of Cars, Cellphones, Excavators and Instant Noodles

I. CARS

 The highest number of Chinese car sales was 28.88 million in 2017, and the highest number of global car sales was the same year,95.66 million.
 2018 was the first decline in Chinese car sales after 28 years of sustained growth and continued to fall to 25.77 million in 2019. Global car sales also fell for two consecutive years in 2018 and 2019.
automotive economy
 Chinese car sales outstripped u.s. in 2009. China accounted for just 8.7% of global auto sales in 2005 and 28.2% in 2019, but the highest figure was 2017, or 30.2%.
 China's auto sales fell 18.6%,79.1%, and 43.2% from January to March 2020, and rose 4.5% and 14.7% from April to April.
 CNMOULDING produce plastic molding parts for many well-known automobile companies, our feeling is that the market tends to be saturated.

II. Cell phones


 China's domestic handset shipments and its smartphone shipments peaked in 2016 at 560 million and 520 million, respectively. China accounted for 23% of smartphone shipments in 2011 and 96% in 2019.
 China's mobile phone production peaked in 2017 at 1.89 billion. In 2019 it was 1.7 billion (1.115 billion smartphones).
 China's domestic smartphone shipments fell 36.6%,54.7% and 21.9% in January-March 2020, up 17.2% in April, but 10.47% in May.
 Global smartphone shipments peaked at 1.473 billion units in 2016 and 1.371 billion units in 2019.

III. Excavators

 China's excavator sales, which hit a record 194,000 units in 2011(at the end of the $4 trillion), made Sany's Liang Wengen the richest man on the mainland in 2011. After four consecutive years of decline,2016 re-growth,2018,2019 set a new high of 20.3,236000 units.
 Sales of excavators in China fell 15.4% and 50.5% in January-February 2020,11.6% in March and 59.9% and 68.0% in April-April. In particular, the monthly sales of 49408 units in March, a record high. There were 45427 units sold in April. Only four months have historically sold more than 40,000 excavators a month, as well as 44278 in March 2019 and 44150 in March 2011.

 IV. Instant noodles

 WIND data from the World Instant Noodle Association (founded in Tokyo in 1997) began in 2007. China's demand for instant noodles (which seems to be sales) was 45.8 billion, or 48% of the world's total. The highest ever demand for instant noodles in China was 46.2 billion in 2013. In 2019, China's demand for instant noodles was 41.5 billion, accounting for 39 percent of the world's demand. The main reasons may be one is the improvement of living standards, the other is the increase in take-out and the reduction of consumption of instant noodles.
Overall, China and the world's two important consumer goods sales of cars, mobile phones reached their peak in 2016 and 2017, I do not know when to hit a new high. It may reflect the basic saturation of the first purchase population and the replacement renewal demand. China's excavator sales, but in 2018,2019 hit new highs. The first three months of this year were affected by the epidemic, China's car, mobile phone sales fell significantly year-on-year, resumed growth in April, car growth in May, mobile phone decline. Excavator sales, in March, hit a record high, infrastructure drive is obvious. Instant noodle sales, which fluctuated downwards after reaching a record high in 2013, also indicate an escalation in consumption and a decrease in consumption of relatively low-end foods.

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