Today, the second half of 2020 began, the new crown pneumonia epidemic is still spreading around the world.
Exports are expected to remain flat or even grow last year
China's exports have rebounded as the country's return to work and production has been largely realized and the multi-country epidemic has stabilized. According to official data, China's exports fell 4.7 percent year-on-year in January-May this year, down 1.7 percent from January-April, and 6.7 percent from the first quarter.
According to the Canton Fair, known as China's "barometer" and "weather vane ", most of the exhibitors have a common feeling: the most difficult time has passed, and exports for the whole year are expected to be flat or even increase from last year.
Disturbance of A stocks in peripheral markets
Except for the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell 2.15% in the first half of this year, the other major indexes of A stocks all rose sharply. According to data from financial data service provider tonghuashun, as of 15:00 Beijing time, the deep index rose 14.97% in the first half of the year, the small and medium-sized index rose 20.85% in the same period, and the gem index rose 35.6%, far better than the performance of other major global stock indexes.
In response to the trend in the second half of the year, the Great Wall Fund Chief Economist told Vida that China's economic recovery is better than market expectations, but also significantly better than the European and American countries.
From a short-term perspective, the current and future period of liquidity easing pattern will not change, China's economic recovery trend is determined, the current valuation of A-shares in the historical low position. From the medium and long term, as long as China insists on reform and opening up, scientific and technological innovation and industrial upgrading, the prospects for A stocks are optimistic.
The exchange rate is expected to rebound
From the point of view of economic recovery, compared with developed countries such as Europe and the United States, the current Chinese epidemic control is better, the economic machine has been restarted and gradually on track, IMF the latest estimates show that China may be the only major economy in the world to achieve positive growth this year.
From the external dollar index trend, u.s. the epidemic is repeated, the economy is deep in recession, unemployment is high, domestic ethnic and social contradictions intensified, many states suspended or suspended economic restart, u.s. stock market adjustment pressure again, the federal reserve reckless quantitative easing policy "sequelae" will also gradually appear, the dollar index is expected to gradually fall to 95 or lower levels, the constraints on the yuan will be weakened.
Chinese and foreign spreads remain high. Against the backdrop of global easing, negative interest rates, and zero interest rates, China still has a rare positive return space, and as domestic stock markets stabilize and the attractiveness of renminbi assets increases, cross-border capital inflows will increase, supporting a stronger currency. "Taken together, the RMB exchange rate is expected to rebound in the second half of the year as a whole, but there may be adjustment pressure at a time when the Sino-US game and the epidemic are repeated.
Official articles are always more optimistic than our folk. As a plastic injection factory operator, I personally feel that the overall Chinese economy is OK, neither too good nor very bad. Some industries affected by the epidemic will be very difficult.
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