2020 Old Americans will not elect Trump

 Send Trump into the White House four years ago. This year's big turn for the elderly

After Trump's flip win over the US election in 2016, exit polls and statistics found that even if Trump lost the national universal suffrage, he won the White House by electoral votes in key states. The breakdown later showed that Trump won in: the elderly, white, men, non-collegiate, rural.

Among them, the elderly is Trump not only in the United States, but also in key states to win. In several key states, he got more than 10% of the votes for people over 65. The elderly population in these states has a voter ratio of about 20%, and this 10% lead gap is enough for Trump to win the state.

However, less than 20 days before the general election vote, Trump's approval ratings in several key states were 10-20% behind Biden, in other words, a huge change of up to 30% compared with 2016.

In Florida, the key state in 2016, which Trump must win this year, his silver-haired family in Florida exceeded Clinton's 17 points at 57:40 percent. He won only 1.2% of Hillary Clinton in Florida.

Another key state to the north, Pennsylvania, is the key state for Biden to win or not this year. Trump's voters over 65 in 2016 were 54:44 percent ,10 percentage points higher than Hillary Clinton. His universal suffrage in Pennsylvania won only 0.7 points.

So 65 elderly voters played a key group (at least one) in 2016, winning Trump to the White House.

Current Florida data

 Emerson College's latest Florida poll in Trump's 10/10-12, after Trump's diagnosis, hospitalization, discharge, and resumption of the campaign, the overall number of Trump at 48:51, only three points behind Biden. In Florida, on average, Trump lags Biden by about 4.5 percent.

 But in the Emerson College (A- level) survey, silver-haired Biden over the age of 65 was 51.1%:44.9% Trump, with Biden leading 6.2 points. This gap is double the state-wide gap. The related questionnaire also asked about Trump's governance satisfaction ,52.7 percent dissatisfied and 44.6 percent satisfied. Whether satisfied or supportive, Trump is 45-.

 Florida Atlantic University (FAU) did a Florida survey on 10/9-10, and the results were very similar. Among the 65-year-old Florida people, Biden led by 11.5% with 53.6%:42.1% Trump. Biden was only 4% ahead of the 51:47 survey in Florida.

 These two latest surveys of the state's overall figures, Trump and Biden in Florida gap only one point outside the error range, it is premature to say who wins and who loses. However, both surveys show that Trump's lag behind over 65 is twice or more than the overall gap. In 2016, with 65 votes ahead of 10 points, Trump's silver-haired nation in Florida has fallen more than 20 points in four years.

Pennsylvania North

The 2016 Trump exit poll after the Pennsylvania vote showed Trump leading Hillary Clinton by 10 points to 65-year-old voters at 54:44.

MorningConsult a rolling 10/2-11 poll, Biden's approval rating for voters over 65 is eight points ahead of Trump by 52:44. The whole state of Pennsylvania is 52:44. Biden's lead in silver hair is the same as overall.

Monmouth University's 9/30-10/4 survey, Pennsylvania overall Biden led Trump eight points at 53:45. Yet among voters over the age of 65, Biden leads Trump by 13 points at 55:42.

However, the opposite figure appeared in the Emerson College survey, with Trump leading Biden 52.8:44.4 for people over 65.

The Penn survey didn't produce exactly the same results (Biden's flip was one behind), but Trump's silverhead in Pennsylvania (10 points) is unlikely to reappear compared with four years ago.

Conclusion of injection molder

 With only 20 days left in the election, Trump is nearly 10% behind in national polls, and few believe he will lead in universal suffrage this time. His only chance, as he did four years ago, was to win the key states and re-elect them.

 Therefore, the change in the support of certain ethnic groups in the key states is sufficient to affect the results this time. Many times, Biden's key: Pennsylvania-led: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, win these three will win. Trump is: Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, plus two of Binghami's.

 Silverheads account for about 20% of votes in Florida and Pennsylvania, where Trump won four years ago and could reverse this year. Already 1.78 million people in Florida have completed the vote, with a high proportion of elderly and Democratic supporters. It'seems that the old people have decided and voted early. Will their votes be enough to allow the election to be turned over again in Florida, Pennsylvania? This trend is bad for Trump.