The yuan's exchange rate has soared, becoming a haven for global capital

 Unconsciously, the RMB exchange rate has risen from 7.18 to 6.74, up a lot. On the one hand, the rise of the RMB exchange rate shows that the United States has unlimited printing of banknotes and the value of the United States dollar has been reduced, on the other hand, China has taken the lead in controlling the epidemic situation, restoring economic growth and becoming a safe haven for global funds. But attention should also be paid to the impact on exports of rising renminbi exchange rates, and hot money inflows will increase the risk of volatility in domestic capital markets. From the bottom of March, the yuan rose from 7.18 to 6.74, up 4400 basis points, and rose 3.71 percent in the third quarter, the best quarterly performance in 12 years, after the 2008 financial crisis.

The RMB exchange rate rose sharply, corresponding to the decline of the dollar index. Since the outbreak, the Fed has been printing money to save the market, making the dollar liquidity flood, the dollar value naturally reduced, the rise in the renminbi is understandable. Since the outbreak of the new crown, the United States Congress has passed four stimulus packages, allocating nearly $3 trillion. On Oct.1, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to pass a new $2.2 trillion stimulus package. Imagine that ordinary American who don't have to work in the epidemic receive higher wages than Chinese white-collar workers, and someone must pay for the money. At the same time, China's first control of the epidemic, economic growth, but also make our country a safe haven for global funds, now the only investment in China is safe, only Chinese factories are fully resumed production. At present, the second wave of the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States has arrived, but our country dare to let go of control, the introduction of 8 days of National Day Mid-Autumn Festival holiday to stimulate the economy, Western countries can only envy and hate. To control the epidemic situation is, on the one hand, vaccine research and development, China's vaccine has entered the third phase of clinical trials, in the existing large number of clinical data, no one has side effects, the effect is very obvious.

But we should also guard against the negative impact of the rise in the RMB exchange rate on the economy. The rise in the RMB exchange rate will inevitably reduce the relative competitiveness of Chinese export enterprises, plastic injection molding business already face such a problem now. Japan was forced by the United States to raise the yen exchange rate, which greatly hit the export competitiveness of Japanese goods. In the end, Japan's economy fell into recession for 20 years. Even now, the GDP of 2019 in Japan has not exceeded the level of 1995.

Of course, the sharp appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, exports will certainly be hit. As Cnmoulding, now injection molds order is lower than before. However, since the outbreak, China's export situation has been improving and even positive growth has occurred in August, mainly because of the unparalleled superiority of our domestic perfect supply chain system under the great destruction of the global supply chain. Manufacturing in many countries has been hit hard by the epidemic. The impact of the RMB exchange rate on China's exports must at least wait until the epidemic is controlled. On the other hand, the inflow of hot money into the country will also aggravate the turbulence in the domestic capital market. The characteristic of hot money is that it comes and goes quickly, and if the Fed's policy changes, the enthusiasm will flow out quickly. The domestic stock market will fall into violent shock in a short time, this is also bad. Similarly, at the beginning of this year, the stock market in the United States fell into a continuous fuse, also because of the huge impact of the epidemic on the economies of various countries, countries have withdrawn funds from the United States market, the result of the withdrawal of hot money. A rise in the RMB exchange rate means that the value of the RMB is recognized by the international market, and the exchange rate rises by 5%, which means that the GDP has increased by 5%, and the overall national strength of our country is bound to rise. But we should also pay close attention to export competitiveness and the flow of hot money, control the rhythm.