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RMB and US dollar showdown

2015. 12.3 night, a trillion dollar profit levels of the Holocaust occurred.

The people expected of the Holocaust

  The European Central Bank cut interest rates evening, as well as many economic scholars including Chinese big reversal for the dollar, the devaluation of the yuan long advocated, more real space next to those of the US capital predators, sent a huge brainless opponents dish, because there You do not have to spend money to lure more.

      The dollar index, rose and then fell, from a high of 100.47, plummeted to a little over 97, down 2.2%. Created since March 2009, which is the biggest decline in almost six years. Was the outbreak of the subprime crisis, the dollar index single-day decline of 2.9%. Even worse is that this crash, after the ECB cut interest rates, we would have expected, the dollar would like to take this opportunity to create recovery highs yet again.

Why is there such a result seems inconsistent with the logic of it?

 Logic never wrong, the wrong people

  In fact, it never appears opposite logic with real financial logic, if that trend and as expected, can only be predicted logically wrong. The dollar index is down not up, the logic behind it is that I have been talking about, the dollar index is currently only rebound, but the rebound high point, the Fed announced the rate hike will really come when the dollar index is likely in 103 about the location, and build a double top.

  Therefore, if the December Fed rate hike, the dollar index likely to turn down. Now, the euro announced interest rate cuts, the effect and the Fed announced the rate hike is about the same, capital predators have seized this opportunity, when everyone thought the dollar should continue to rally, effortlessly find a big rival short wave plate, which It is a hearty, lucrative funds massacre last night incident, at least at the scale of its earnings more than one trillion US dollars.

After the weak dollar, the RMB yuan will be okay?

       Just past the renminbi incorporate SDR, it is actually happening behind an emperor to abdicate drama. US dollar share in the SDR is almost intact, 10.9 percent of China, mainly the euro, pound and yen let out. How to look like the dollar a few little brother, try to turn the yuan pull into same, of course, one of the most active is the euro and the pound.

        RMB added SDR, slow decline accelerated dollar hegemony, the United States is no way this point, in the period of review which has been talked about, because, if the United States allowed China to get involved, then China can only start all over again, IMF may end a mere figurehead. US may eventually have to play mahjong, instead of playing their own good at the bridge. More importantly, China included is the people, the general trend, the United States did not dare to go against the trend, otherwise people are lost.

       RMB join the international influence of SDR, it is more than expected, at least beyond American expectations. Because, after nearly 10 countries represented, to incorporate the renminbi foreign exchange reserves, increased investment in RMB assets. This psychological expectations very terrible, because it will greatly affect the current US strong dollar strategy.

    Strong dollar strategy, whose aim is to create the illusion of the American economy thriving in the world, the temptation for more capital to the United States then set high assets, thereby to complete the field in a large universe diversion of global capital, while the US capital at the universe after the big diversion, go to the whole world to acquire cheap assets. This strategy has become the United States from the subprime crisis turned completely, the only possible solution.


        But the hope that, with inclusion of the RMB SDR increasingly slim. So also, we see the US media out disinfection, said the yuan included in SDR, it will not have any immediate impact, but does not affect the status of the dollar in the world. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, also personally photographed, said the yuan included in the SDR, simply do nothing, which is equivalent to the Chinese made a small red flower it, we should not be all wrong.

  Butterfly wings have been instigated, and then it was too late to remedy. The dollar plunged last night, not just against the dollar this should not have time to correct abnormal strong, but also the host of the RMB capital market once Zhuanghang.

Strong dollar strategy or failure in advance

 In the review of 25 November, when I have talked about, Chinese Manniu opening, the biggest problem is the Fed's strategy of a strong dollar, because it greatly hampered the US-led strategic capital outflow China. "The Fed wanted to wait for the Chinese economy signals a further deterioration, especially after the stock market crash, China was a substantial outflow of capital, the rapid devaluation of the renminbi is expected to enlarge, once concerns about China's economic influence throughout the world, the US media in the calculation outside China Chu also top a few months, but fortunately, China stabilized now, China Manniu reopened, which gave the best weapon against the strong dollar China strategy. "

  Of course, my view is not mainstream, most Chinese scholars, are still forecast in the next few years the dollar bull market, and that the yuan to a large devaluation of house prices to drop. Some Americans even more than they are optimistic about the US economy.

In fact, when the global so generally optimistic about the time an asset, which in itself is a huge risk. Especially promising is the Fed deliberately misled come a time when the common good, hides a huge massacre future assets. China's rich past few years has been for the US real estate market, sent at least $ 350 billion in cash support, has almost the same, it may be necessary to go bargain-hunting quilt.

  Dollar plunged last night, did not see the Chinese media have too much coverage. Occasionally there are a few, but also "the dollar's slide," with the word. 2.2 percent, the biggest decline in six years, with the decline seen to have lost the basic objective.

 However, no one can stop the tide of history, the Fed and the White House, the fantasy of this to finance big showdown to complete the subprime crisis completely turned around, complete re-parasitic ambition dollar hegemony, and probably will soon become Bubbles.

   The above article not my orininal, Cnmoulding is a China mold maker , hope brought to share, as a plastic injection molding manufacturer in Shanghai, I still firmly believe that a big currency issue, at least if I choose to I want to hold dollars instead of the continuous depreciation of the yuan.

Pensions into the stock market is to take life money gambling

1. The stock market is the big casino, pension market is to get people to gamble life money

cnmoulding subscribe enterprise called a stock market debut. On the primary market, buy stocks of money was taken away as the capital for enterprise production and management. We are only shouting out to sell the stock, or buy stock in the hands of others, is called the secondary market for the trading of stock. We are talking about the stock market, mainly refers to the secondary market, the stock is constantly being transferred in the hands of investors, namely "stock." for example, if you trust cnmoulding is a good injection molding company in china, so you can buy cnmoulding stock as well.

The reader must distinguish between what is invested and what is speculation. Investment is putting money into the economic entity for production and business profits. Investment creation of gross domestic product (GDP), because there is a piece of GDP is an investment, namely: GDP = consumption + investment + government spending + net exports. Visible, investment to create wealth and promote economic development and social prosperity.

And speculation is through some kind of goods (including the numerous financial products) repeatedly buying and selling arbitrage. Speculative money does not go into economic entities, these money in the pockets of speculators circulation, which is not used for the production and operation, nor for consumption, does not create a penny to GDP. Speculation is speculation, speculation in stocks is a typical secondary market.

Hazard speculation is making a false prosperity, inflate the bubble economy, when the final blow the foam breaking even lead to financial collapse disorder, in human history due to "speculation" from the crisis countless.

The speculative market are so-called wealth paper figure, such wealth can easily evaporate overnight. Dutch tulip bubble burst in 1637, tulip prices fallen by 99.999%. UK stock market bubble burst in 1720, most of the stock has become wastepaper. 1720 France Mississippi bubble burst, many investors penniless. US stock market bubble burst in 1929, the Dow back to 33 years ago. US real estate bubble burst in 2006, house prices fell 30 years ago.

China's stock market volatility and the risk is far greater than the US stock market. 24-year history of the Chinese stock market, the Shanghai index has 8 years or more than 50%, with 4-year decline of more than 20%. The United States in 1900--2014 years of 114 years, the Dow rose more than 50 percent of the year only two years, the annual decline in more than 20 percent of only 10 years. The United States, the Dow rose more than 20 percent year will lead to a bear market, while China's Shanghai Index rose generally more than 50 percent year will lead to a bear market.

The stock market in the short term based on economic fundamentals would not run, because the stock market and the real economy struggle funds, real economic growth slowed during the bull market, bear market, growth accelerated during the real economy, but long-term trends in the stock market is a return to economic fundamentals. Stock market and other speculative arbitrage markets, everlasting law, when speculation was bound to provoke a bear market bull, after all, it is to burst the bubble, the market return to its intrinsic value.

In the United States, "retirement savings plan" (also known as the "401k Plan"), for example, the voluntary program by the American corporate employees, not part of the government-led social security system. "Retirement savings plan" available for investment in securities, similar to personal finance products. In 2008, "retirement savings plan" a loss of nearly $ 2 trillion. August 5, 2011, Standard & Poor's announced that the US sovereign credit rating from AAA down to AA +, the average loss of $ 12,000 for each "retirement savings plan" account. Visible, the pension for the finance and investment, high risks and huge losses, and ultimately pays the bill had to be the most common laborer.

2. The pension is the main content of the social security system, can achieve social wealth redistribution

"Sense of security" is the most basic of human rights protection, but also one of the signs of social civilization. Resident individuals is difficult to accurately determine their own future economic situation, if economic conditions worsen in the future, but there is not enough savings, life is bound to get into trouble. Also, some people have a dependence on government thinking, excessive consumption of young, do not want for the future retirement savings, that the old government would not matter. This requires the Government to take coercive measures, the pension problem residents into a government-led social security system.

The vast majority of countries, including China, the pension generally use the "pay as you go" system, some supplemented by individual pension accounts. "PAYG" refers to the generation of people who work are not paid pension insurance for their future retirement store, but immediately transferred to a generation now retiring.

Many countries face an aging population, which is more need to plan ahead, now let pension income is greater than the support to produce a surplus, then the monthly earnings into the pension accumulated for future needs. Visible, pension acts as a "reservoir" of the role of small water periods in excess of water stored in the water consumption periods, water supply to compensate for the lack of water storage.
The total personal pension after retirement is not necessarily received pay pension accumulation during operation, because the social pension insurance is not commercial activity, but a social responsibility, it has social solidarity nature. In other words, we put into a pension insurance "plate" in co-ordination, which is a channel for income redistribution.
France's pension system has a minimum pension, regardless of the past did not pay social security payment, no matter how much to pay, all French pension for the elderly will enjoy this. According to the 2011 standard, single elderly minimum pension of € 8,907.34 per year per elderly couple is € 14,181.30 per year. And the provisions of the pension shall not exceed the salary cap (2012 to 3031 euros) of 50%, if there are minor children retiree dependents, each child plus about 5%. Germany also provides the highest pension does not exceed 75% of pre-retirement wages last month. British elderly regardless of all wages when working level, and regardless of whether the payment had to pay too much or national insurance, will receive the same basic pension. According to the 2010 standard, the British basic pensions for the elderly singletons £ 97.65 per week, per elderly couple to £ 156.15 per week.
As can be seen from the above examples of developed countries, workers during work pension paid by the Government of consistent use, all the people living in accordance with the desired setting basic pension amount, a person can pay pension funding others, future You can also get funded pension when others achieve social equity through the redistribution of the pension system channels. But in our country, social redistribution has played the role of pensions was not ideal, because our pension using the "pay more get" policy, and did not set an upper limit of pensioners, so there have been a lot of state-owned high Enjoy "astronomical pension" situation after retirement tube. We can see that the pension system is also in need of reform. our company is a injection molds making company, we can not pay high pension to our staff like goverment company
so we can not get back more when we retired.

3. pension fund management should be "safety first" and change the pension fund management shall be two-thirds of citizens agree

Most retirees have no other income, pension is their only source of income, the pension as a "life money" is no exaggeration. If the pension is a problem, it means that future retirees might not receive a pension, therefore, pension management must put safety first.

Many countries of the pension fund as a "National Security Strategy of reserves" to manage the country, can not use the money to invest in the stock market is very risky. For example, US law prohibits pension to invest in stocks. United States during the administration of President Franklin D. Roosevelt, on August 14, 1935 adopted the "Social Security Act," Since then, the United States established a huge social security system, pension insurance is the main content of the system.

In the United States, as long as the existence of an employment relationship, the employer and the employee must pay Social Security taxes (payroll taxes) to the government, equivalent to our pension. According to the United States, the rate of social security funds Social Security taxes would be regularly adjusted operating conditions, to avoid deficits. 2011 Social Security taxes for the employer to pay the employee tax gross salary (excluding payroll tax expenditures) of 6.2%, 4.2% employee pay, but pay more than 106,800 US dollars portion without paying social security taxes. In the US, people pay Social Security taxes that they can not only enjoy a pension, if the family income is low, heavy burden, although never pay off social security taxes, spouses and children can still receive a pension, to receive the maximum amount of Social Security taxes to pay spouse or parent pension by 50%. If Social Security taxes taxpayer's death, no income families can continue to receive his share of the pension.

US pension funds managed by the Social Security Trust Fund, US law only allows pension funds to buy government bonds, shall not make any other investment. Social Security trust funds are extra-budgetary expenses, the Government budgeted can not fight the idea of ​​the fund.

Some countries allow a certain percentage come from the pension to invest in stocks, but the risk is very large indeed. Canadian investment in the stock market in fiscal 2008 loss of 3.441 billion pension Canadian dollars, if coupled with equity investment management costs, total loss of 3.682 billion Canadian dollars, and all kinds of bonds purchased during this period of $ 2.008 billion, 1.323 billion industrial investment income Canadian dollar. Larger Canadian pension investment losses in fiscal 2009, a net loss of 23.6 billion Canadian dollars, mainly by investing in stock losses.

It should be noted that the pension is a contract between citizens and the government established a number of countries to manage any changes to pensions, it must obtain the consent of more than two-thirds of citizens. In Canada, citizens 18 years of age if there is work, it should pay a certain percentage of the income of pension insurance, uniform payment (Quebec self-management) Canada Human Resources and Social Development is responsible for management. Any change in Canadian pension plans, two-thirds of the provinces must agree and represent more than two thirds of the population.

4. Conclusion

Pensions are the people life money in China's stock market has not yet fully market-oriented, low transparency, insider trading and Rat frequent case, the pension funds into the stock market higher risk.

To get the pension does not depreciate, the safest investment channel is deposited in banks or buy government bonds, while controlling inflation, and timely adjustment of bank interest rates, to ensure that bank deposit rates higher than the CPI increase. If you do not control inflation, any form of investment, then a high income will be "inflation" This big mouth slowly eaten.

Pension related to the livelihood of the people coming. Should stand in the height of social harmony and stability to understand pensions, good management of money, to ensure its safety under the premise of making value-added, but it will never be able to get a huge risk to speculate in the stock market casino.