2020年6月5日星期五

In the next six months, the global economy will be in two strange phases, with entities falling and stocks rising

This year, the global economy was hit by an epidemic. Once upon a time, central banks around the world, such as the Fed, used money printers to save the market. The Fed immediately lowered interest rates to zero and opened up quantitative easing.
 In this case, we see that the global stock market has experienced a strong and rapid rebound, the U.S. stock rebound is closer to 40%, the fastest rate of rising. Many people can not understand that this phenomenon is not sustainable.

 However, CNMOULDING believes that this phenomenon will continue for half a year, and will become more and more intense. The reason is simple: the central bank's bail-out could indeed save capital markets, but not the real economy. Look at Europe. Last year, Europe's economy almost stagnated and the European debt crisis has not been properly handled, but Europe's stock market has been rising and even hit a record high.
 But such easing is of no use to the real economy, where the money isn't flowing into the real economy at all, but almost entirely absorbed by the stock and real estate markets. Because many companies in the real economy, in fact, zombie companies, should have gone bankrupt in the crisis, but because the easing survived, they would then enter what Japanese economist Koo Charming called a "balance sheet" recession.
 Such a situation, although strictly speaking, can not continue. But nobody seems to know where the end is. After all, Europe has been able to last for the past 12 years, so for another six months, I believe the probability is very large.

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