2020/7/6, the stock market can be described as soaring, the Shanghai index rose 5.71%, the two markets traded 1.5 trillion, more than 200 stocks trading limit, this increase has not been seen for five years, even the stock market has risen on the news broadcast.
From the disk the bull market vane, securities firms have been three days in a row.
many stocks are the continuous trading limit, banks and insurance are also obviously driven by funds, experienced investors know that these three big guys move, often foreshadowing the market. A lot of people ask Lao Qi, is the bull market coming? Why is there a bull market if the economy is bad? First of all, in fact, the bull market has already come, in 2019, A shares have been up for a year, the Shanghai Stock Exchange index has risen 22% in 2019, this half-year has risen 9%, the gem has risen 44% in 2019, and this year has risen 40%, if this is not a bull market, then really do not know what is a bull market. The right side of the market has been very obvious. I understand what you mean. You want to ask, are there any mad cows in 2007 and 2015? It's hard to say if we' re coming, we've been emphasizing structural bull markets, and we' re going to have to look further, at least in my heart, to see if the mad bull market is coming. So there is no essential difference between a real cow and a buffalo, and they end up as pit bulls. There is no bull market, no pit.
The stock market is a leading indicator of the economy, but it can not be predicted by the economy. The stock market reflects the expectations of investors in the economy. The key point is that the expectation is not the economy, so the expectations in the first half of the year are so bad that you will be excited by a slight improvement. Just like today's college entrance examination, high achiever is in the heart of the test Tsinghua, the result only on a Jiaotong University, he will be very lost, and low achiever's psychological expectation is to have a three on the line, the result of the test a two, he is twice excited. So although the results are very different, the mood of the two people is completely different. The same is true of the stock market when people think too pessimistic about the future, the stock market will rise because the sale has been sold, a bit of bottom money will rise. On the contrary, when people think of the future too well, should buy all, a few people sell, no one to pick up.
Third, from the current economic cycle, belong to the recovery cycle,
from the investment of 6 stages, belong to stage 4, from the financial cycle, the current wide credit wide interest rate cycle, these three-cycle resonance, are beneficial to the stock market. Corporate profits rebounded, social financing rebounded, the economy slowly climbed from the bottom of the pit, the second quarter should be able to turn positive, before the end of the year to return to the same period last year. So investment expectations are improving. In addition, the bond market stall, most of the city's property market cooling, nowhere to go, for the stock market to provide a steady stream of capital support.
Fourth, the national level needs a bull market, to play equity financing call
the symbol of creditor's rights financing is real estate, the symbol of equity financing is the stock market, if we want to develop the real economy and develop high technology, we must vigorously develop equity financing, so that more venture capital has a normal exit path, more and better assets can be listed and financed, these all need a huge capital market. So the stock market after the big rise, on the news broadcast, this has a strong signal significance. illustrate this stage, is fully supported for the stock market. However, we should also remind you, do not be happy too early, think that crazy cattle market, you can make money, on the contrary, for the vast majority of people, may be the beginning of the loss. Stock market this thing, like farming, also need spring planting summer long, autumn harvest winter Tibet, if you do not plant spring, now can only buy chips from others at a high price. My cost in the market 2800, your cost in 3300, then how do you play with me? I'm making money to stop my earnings, and your fault tolerance rate is very low. Last wave of bull market, the final cover, heavy losses, basically more than 4000 points to enter the stock market. By this time, value investors are almost doubling. So, this is why I don't like mad cow, originally very good growth, will be helped by some speculators break the trend, let the market short-term rise is very high, we also need to passively turn to defense.
People always think that bear market is very dangerous, and bull market is very safe
closed eyes can make money, in fact, big mistake, the real safety is bear market, you close your eyes to buy everything is right, take a few years can make money, the most risky is just bull market, most industries are now in the median valuation, that is, you have to use more expensive price to buy. So, the more this time, the more careful, but also to learn. Take the wrong step, and there's no return. As for the final judgment, we still stick to the point that the structural bull market must have begun, more optimistic about growth and cycle, as to whether the overall bull market has come, this is still to be seen. Before the wobble point of the situation is also a lot, such as the beginning of 2013, is also the brokerage looks to start, the result rose for two months, and then not up. There was no bull market. So, or old Qi often said that sentence, whatever his market, first do your own thing, you just follow us, in the spring, that is ,2018 to plant the land, waiting for autumn harvest on the line. It's just about making more and less. Buddha at this time a little, with a grateful heart, see how big the market can give you red envelopes. And if you don't plant land in spring, you should not be radical, but conservative. You need to quickly build a defensive and offensive combination, if late, I am afraid there is no chance.
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