An unprecedented 364 trillion yuan bubble

 Write in the beginning: struggle for decades to open the company, it is better to hype a suite! This is the joke of this era is also sad.

Even coronavirus has failed to stop the world's largest asset bubble from expanding.

 After a brief pause in the coronavirus blockade in February, China's property market, once considered unsustainable, resumed its climb. Although the economy is still not fully recovering, investors are trading hotly.
 In March this year, a new real estate development project in Shenzhen,288 apartments sold out in less than 8 minutes. A few days later, more than 400 homes in a new property in Suzhou were snapped up by buyers. It is estimated that Shanghai's second-hand housing sales in April are close to the highest level in history. On a Saturday last month, nearly 9,000 people each paid a down payment of $1 million to qualify for a property in Shenzhen.

"In March, when the market began to rebound, I had little time for lunch." Zhao Wenhao, Lianjia's agent in Shanghai, said. Lianjia is one of the largest real estate brokers in China. He said many customers were concerned that the yuan would depreciate in the face of a global slowdown, prompting more money to enter the housing market, which is seen as a safe haven.

 Many economists say the resulting asset bubble now outstrips the U.S. housing bubble of the first decade of the century. 

At the peak of the U.S. housing boom, about $900 billion was invested in residential property every year. In the previous 12 months, China's total investment in real estate was about $1.4 trillion. Last month, real estate investment in China exceeded any month since the record.
 According to Goldman Sachs Group, China's total inventory of housing and developers reached $52 trillion (364 trillion yuan) in 2019, twice the size of the U.S. housing market, or even more than the entire U.S. bond market.
 The stagnation of the housing market caused by the epidemic did not last long. Urban house prices rose 4.9% year-on-year in June. Despite a sharp drop in sales in February, investment in the first half of the year rose by 1.9%. On Thursday, the bureau said China's overall economy grew 3.2% in the second quarter.
 Evergrande, China's largest residential builder, has raised its sales target this year by 23% from January's expectations.

While the rapid recovery in the real estate market is, to some extent, good news for the central government.

the government has also drawn attention to some of the long-running worries. The central government has repeatedly issued policies to stop house prices from getting out of control. The phrase "houses are for the living, not for speculation" became the guiding mantra of government housing policy.
 However, it is not easy for people to take this information seriously. China's home sales have experienced a decade of rapid growth driven by borrowing, with a record household leverage of 57.7% in the first quarter of this year. This is the largest quarterly increase in the ratio since the first quarter of 2010, which measures the ratio of household mortgages, consumer loans and other loans to GDP.
 At the heart of China's problem is that buyers already understand that the government seems unwilling to let the market fall. If house prices do fall sharply, this will destroy the main source of wealth for most people and may trigger unrest.
 This gives the Chinese with enough money the incentive to continue buying, because they believe that real estate in big cities will remain the safest investment in China, regardless of the overall economic situation.
 "Real estate hijacked China's economy, so the government is afraid to push home prices down, even if this is the most effective way to curb the bubble," Chen said he works for a retailer and plans to buy a property in Shenzhen.
 "You have to follow the money," he said,37. He added that he had raised the budget for real estate spending since the outbreak pushed house prices up. "As long as the government starts printing money, asset prices will rise. In China, only housing prices will continue to soar.

No one is sure how the government will solve the problem without undermining overall economic stability.

Cash-strapped developers and local governments selling land to them have also boosted sales. Both require increased revenue to pay off debt and additional policy measures have been developed to that end.
 No one is sure how the government will solve the problem without undermining overall economic stability. Policymakers have had to postpone more aggressive stimulus plans, though some economists say it is necessary, in part because of fears that they will push home prices higher.
 The results of a survey of Chinese household finance conducted by the southwest university of finance and economics in Chengdu also confirm the concern that demand for real estate is rising mostly among people who already own housing, while the demand for real estate has not changed much among those without housing.
 This is a sign of speculative investment, says Gan Li, a professor of economics at Texas A & M University and a Chinese family finance expert.
 "Speculative demand is rising because people think real estate is a safer asset than the stock market," he said. They think it's for sure. Because of the epidemic, they actually consume less and save more. so they have more money to invest. This will create a bigger housing problem ."

According to the latest data from the China Household Financial Survey, in 2017, about 21% of housing units in Chinese cities were vacant, that is, about 65 million units, which is very high compared with international standards.

 The vacancy rate was 39.4 % among households with two properties and 48.2 % among households with three or more properties.
 In big cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Chengdu, the rate of return on rent (the proportion of annual rental income to the value of the real estate) is less than 2%, which is lower than the rate of return on buying Chinese government bonds.
 Still, Ms. Bishan, a 42-year-old English teacher, said the outbreak prompted her plans to invest in a second home in Shenzhen ahead of schedule because she feared inflation. "You have to invest your money somewhere, or you'll lose value ." She said.
 Tao duo, another buyer, said she and her husband signed a contract to buy a second home in Shanghai in early May. His purchase of the home, located in the ideal school district, could increase her 3-year-old son's chances of entering a good primary school.
 "We've been watching closely for months. Normally, these homes are robbed as soon as they go public," said Tao duo,32. She decided to buy the house the next day after watching it. "We were lucky to get this. The broker's boss said that on the night we signed the contract, the company got another full offer from another client ."
 Part of the reason some economists worry is that Chinese real estate is rising so fast, and it is continuing to climb even when the economy is under pressure.

By the end of last year, about 96 percent of Chinese urban households had at least one home, well above 65 percent of U.S. housing ownership, according to a survey released by the central bank in April.

 In some ways, this prosperity has achieved Beijing's goals. It has boosted economic growth and created wealth for millions of middle-class Chinese families. Local governments must hand over a large part of the income tax to the central government, but they also receive additional income from selling land to developers.
 But the housing boom has taken investment money from other industries. It also saddled many families with debt. According to the Bank for International Settlements, China accounted for about 57% of the $11.6 trillion increase in household loans worldwide between 2009 and 2019. The United States accounts for about 19%.
 Prices in some Chinese cities have reached levels comparable to those in some of the world's most expensive cities. According to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the average house price level in China reached 9.3 times per capita income in 2018, compared with 8.4 times in San Francisco.
 In Tianjin, where 15 million people live, apartments in upscale locations are priced at about 60,000 yuan per square meter, according to Real Estate Service No .1 Pacific Davis. Although London's disposable income is seven times that of tianjin, it is roughly the equivalent of what an average homebuyer pays in some expensive parts of London.

local governments are under pressure to prevent further house prices from soaring, they are more worried about a sharp drop in prices

In essence, Chinese urban residents put everything on their own houses. They now have nearly 78% of their wealth tied to residential property, up from 35% in the US.
 When the coronavirus began to spread in China, many economists and property experts worried that the peak of real estate had arrived. Housing sales fell 36% in the first two months of 2020, compared with a year ago, and many cash-strapped real estate companies were pushed to the brink. As of June 5, more than 200 small developers had filed for bankruptcy, state media reported.
 After that, larger developers and local governments launched incentives to attract buyers back. At least 26 of China's 32 provinces and regions have introduced policies to boost the property market since February, including easing down payment requirements and home purchase subsidies, according to Huatai Securities.
 "While local governments are under pressure to prevent further house prices from soaring, they are more worried about a sharp drop in prices," said Gao Fei, general manager of property company Zhongyuan Group. They can't afford the consequences of the market falling. According to the Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, in 2019, the proportion of land transfer income and related taxes on developers to local government income reached 52.9%, a record high.

As a china mold maker, I think most Chinese will invest their wealth in real estate during the downturn. "The worse China's economy gets," he said ." The higher the prices in Shenzhen and other places ."

A suite apartment can destroy a Chinese middle class

The number of Chinese middle class has exceeded two hundred million

So, the number of China's middle class How much?
Credit Suisse Wealth Report to each person owns 50,000 -50 million of net wealth to define the middle class adults. Such a middle class standard is not high. Thus, the conventional netizens exclaimed "averaged", "drag" The difference is, this time users who have indicated that, "If wealth as long as reached $ 50,000 is the middle class, that I can be considered the middle class."
In fact, the standard of the middle class is not unique. For example, Forbes magazine has announced that she is a middle-class standard: living in the city; between 25 to 45 years old; have a university degree; professionals and entrepreneurs; annual income between $ 10,000 to $ 60,000.
Here, we middle-class standards to Credit Suisse Wealth Report estimates the number of Chinese middle class. According to 50000-500000 US dollars of net worth, according to the Southwest University of Finance and China Household Financial Survey (referred CHFS) latest survey data show that in 2015, the current adult population of Chinese middle class accounted for the proportion of the adult population was 20.1%, far higher than the Swiss Letter estimated 10.7%; the average wealth of the middle class adults about $ 139,000, far higher than Credit Suisse estimated $ 68,000.
According CHFS data projections, the number of Chinese middle class adult population should be 204 million people, rather than 109 million people, while in the hands of the middle class should also be total wealth of $ 28.3 trillion, not $ 7 trillion, far more than the United States and Japan's $ 16.8 trillion and $ 9.7 trillion.
Therefore, the number of China's middle class has reached 204 million people, whether it is the middle class population size, or the total wealth of the middle class, China has leapt to the world top.
Of course, while the Chinese middle class in the overall scale has obvious advantages, but there are two features worth noting:
First, the per capita wealth of the Chinese middle class is $ 139,000, far below the $ 184,000 and $ 157,000 Japan, the United States. The absolute number of Chinese middle class is far higher than the estimated number Although Credit Suisse Wealth Report, but accounted for only 20.1%, far lower than the United States, 37.7 percent and Japan 59.5 percent.
Second, the proportion of different sectors of China and the United States and Japan are also very different. As shown, the Chinese adult population, very small part of people crossed the high threshold of wealth, more than the middle class standard of moderate wealth, the population accounted for only 1.0%. In the United States, the ratio was 12.3%, Japan 9.1%. At the low end of the wealth pyramid, China 78.9 percent of the adult population still does not meet the minimum standards of the wealth of the middle class.
China Injection Molding Company-cnmoulding think, the ratio was 50.0% and 31.4%, respectively, in the United States and Japan. If the structure of an ideal distribution of wealth as "olive", then Japan is relatively closer to this model, and China belong to the uneven distribution of wealth "pyramid."

Chinese middle class wealth too dependent on real estate

Wealth and asset structure size different affluent Chinese are also significant differences. First, the average wealth of low-wealth adults, only $ 11,000, from the middle class standard of $ 50,000 is still far.
Some experts pointed out that China's middle class population, or over 200 million, but the wealth of the middle class in the real estate allocation ratio is too heavy, up 79.5 percent, while the proportion of financial assets is too low, only 10.8%. And the Chinese people prefer real estate, the American and Japanese families are more willing to participate in financial markets. According to 2013 US Consumer Finance Survey (SCF) data, US household financial assets accounted for 40.8%, while real estate accounted for only 34.1%.
Credit Suisse Wealth Report per person has 50,000 to 500,000 US dollars of net worth, to define the middle class adults. This standard is not high. If an adult has a shelter in the general specifications of the city, you can easily reach this standard.
Therefore, this standard does not cause the public to question after the release, nor lead to public "drag" sighs - they think in accordance with this standard, it really belongs to the middle class. Such happiness seems to come a bit too sudden, abrupt to even among parties which have some feel unreal.
In other words, the report is actually used to divide the wealth class is real estate, houses and even people all of the property; if you do not count the value of the property, maybe a lot of the middle class is still in the state debt, the so-called house slaves is the case. In other words, although the real estate point of view, people have a lot of money; however, if the house is made from live, the support of the middle class facade of wealth, in fact, does not exist.
Is it, people will live in the house used to make money from it? If you really sell, it is a return to a true addiction over the middle class, but I'm afraid that will come back to buy again powerless.
So, even though the middle class will be among the people to feel a trace of happiness, however, carefully pondering, in real estate the way to achieve status changes, and its essence is actually "is in production."
As a result, people do not want, but also can not afford such a high price of real estate. All houses are not spending all of, but not life. But because the house indispensable and prices high, the incomes of the majority of people have invested in the house. Indeed, even to eating the old way, by way of overdraft future earnings, can barely make their homes to buy a house, to realize the dream dwelling.
This price is a bit large. But what can we do? No house will not be able to settle down in the city, you can not be competitive in the marriage market, it can not provide basic security in the birth of a child in school. So, even if high prices to death, is considered to be a high price, but also we had to bite the bullet, bite the bullet and buy a house.

 

Cnmoudling-china mold maker tell you truth here

 the so-called housing wealth are often a burden. From the price perspective, a value of the house is not low, a house can prop up a middle class. But what is the real significance? The house is used for living, can not be used to invest, can not bring disposable wealth; to this house, people live frugally lower standard of living, give up the pursuit of life, but also gave up the social participation and responsibility.
This is an inevitable chain reaction - when the so-called middle class eyes open every day when the mortgage to worry about, look how much they value the pursuit of noble, how enthusiastic they expect social participation, does not seem realistic. More often, people put ideals gave way to crawl, crawl doctrine instead of a pragmatic retreat idealism, ultimately, it is the ideal farewell.
Therefore, real estate On the middle, the middle class will be the presence of real estate addiction, will the existence of a de facto "is middle class" - although, to be divided house prices, many people belong to the middle class; however, because of the people's wealth, real estate overdraft and ideals, but there was a lot of people "is the middle" embarrassment.
This "being middle class" will inevitably lead to the middle class of blur and "dirty": A so-called blur refers to nominal, their actual performance may not meet the social expectations of the middle class; the so-called "dirty" is the means by which fetters reality In real economic pressure, class identity inevitably flows down. This "is the middle" for society, is clearly a need to focus on the issues.
China's economy is now in the end how bad I, as a plastic injection moulding do not see the data, but everyone knows that housing prices continue to lift the bubble is more manufacturing to China is to destroy nature, may also do government
People must be more unhappy, it seems that they really no other way.

open eye to see china national anti-corruption

Since the second half of 2012, through the exposure of the property of the local officials, let people see the determination of the national anti-corruption, and also see now some officials of the place is really the corruption of the powerful, the frequent room tert room Auntie "events that housing information system has become a nightmare for some officials. Recently, some places to step up the introduction of housing information query specification, these specifications input names query name how many suites person rounds "way to make the specialized constraint, this rare and previously introduced specification. I hope to continue to see the country's anti-corruption behavior, do not want to stop there.
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The Zhangzhou Yancheng non "rounds": February 16, Fujian Zhangzhou City, said in a news release for further deal with the property rights of publicity and privacy protection, Zhangzhou recently issued the "Interim Measures of housing ownership registration information query . "

Guangzhou: others held the original owners ID card can not check the real estate cycle of songs

Shenzhen: You can not use the name of the owner retrieved Real Estate Information



User reviews and our expectations are the same

Beijing Pok Oi Hospital, Neurosurgery Sun Wei
This is the name of the protection of privacy under the guise enacted in order to protect the ill-gotten gains, the right to use of the hands in charge of a self-protection measures, inferior race to escape the people to carry out the liquidation of its illegal proceeds of crime
The Fenghuang Beijing Netizen: mobile phone users
No more shameful than trying to self-conceal corrupt behavior. The combination of anti-corrosion anti-corruption situation, slightly politically minded people can easily understand how it is.

The Fenghuang Beijing Netizen: mobile phone users
The basic spirit of the rule of law is not wronged a good man not condone a bad person, and quit the good conscience, afraid of ghosts knocking at the door. If we build a country under the rule of law, let the sun shine every dark corner. If you do not build, let history tell now.

I used to wonder if the state because of the Diaoyu Islands and Japan-US war as long as the country need ready to die for your country but now ask yourself how naive since learning the total came to power advocating that are reported to the officials after the corruption investigation and a quasi more check the deeper more investigation and more shocking, from two accounts to four accounts from more than a dozen suites to the whole street shops, really to only you think they can not do is not the point, people buy a suite pour life beyond this, or the middle class, the underlying ordinary people buy the fitness room but also everywhere to borrow money, I would now like to day day cares who is playing who, I save enough money I also immigrants

  I hope our leaders see more users comments, this is the hope of the people.