First half GDP in 2020

 The United States fell 4.6 percent, so what about China?

No need to say, everyone also knows that Chinese science and technology ah, decades ago is still very weak, after years of development, the level of science and technology has finally caught up. With the development of science and technology, our life has changed dramatically. Looking back on life more than ten or twenty years ago, we feel like dreams.

It is also thanks to the great progress of science and technology, so our country's economic growth is also very rapid, especially valuable, our economic growth has always maintained a relatively fast speed, and by contrast, developed countries like the United States, Their economic growth rate has been very slow.

This year is also an unusual year, because the outbreak caused a certain degree of "degradation" of the world's economy, according to statistics, only two of the more than 200 countries in the world have maintained positive economic growth. Come today to tell you the first half of 2020 GDP ranking: the United States fell 4.6, so what about China?

 Let's first look at the GDP of the top US, which GDP reached $10.11 trillion in the first half of the year, shrinking 4.6 percent from last year. But as we all know, the United States is one of the worst countries in the world. Under such severe circumstances, the United States can still maintain a $10.11 trillion GDP, which has to admire the strength of the United States.

However, to admire, the real king is still China, our country is the first outbreak of the epidemic, after a difficult war and epidemic, our economy fell in the first quarter, but the second quarter has been restored. The economy began to grow again, GDP in the first half reached $6.5 trillion.

China has given the world a perfect answer, and the big problem of the epidemic has not defeated us. On the contrary, it is an opportunity to make us more powerful. We have begun to hide our strength and continue to develop. China mold maker believe that in the near future, Our country will develop like other countries.

The yuan's exchange rate has soared, becoming a haven for global capital

 Unconsciously, the RMB exchange rate has risen from 7.18 to 6.74, up a lot. On the one hand, the rise of the RMB exchange rate shows that the United States has unlimited printing of banknotes and the value of the United States dollar has been reduced, on the other hand, China has taken the lead in controlling the epidemic situation, restoring economic growth and becoming a safe haven for global funds. But attention should also be paid to the impact on exports of rising renminbi exchange rates, and hot money inflows will increase the risk of volatility in domestic capital markets. From the bottom of March, the yuan rose from 7.18 to 6.74, up 4400 basis points, and rose 3.71 percent in the third quarter, the best quarterly performance in 12 years, after the 2008 financial crisis.

The RMB exchange rate rose sharply, corresponding to the decline of the dollar index. Since the outbreak, the Fed has been printing money to save the market, making the dollar liquidity flood, the dollar value naturally reduced, the rise in the renminbi is understandable. Since the outbreak of the new crown, the United States Congress has passed four stimulus packages, allocating nearly $3 trillion. On Oct.1, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to pass a new $2.2 trillion stimulus package. Imagine that ordinary American who don't have to work in the epidemic receive higher wages than Chinese white-collar workers, and someone must pay for the money. At the same time, China's first control of the epidemic, economic growth, but also make our country a safe haven for global funds, now the only investment in China is safe, only Chinese factories are fully resumed production. At present, the second wave of the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States has arrived, but our country dare to let go of control, the introduction of 8 days of National Day Mid-Autumn Festival holiday to stimulate the economy, Western countries can only envy and hate. To control the epidemic situation is, on the one hand, vaccine research and development, China's vaccine has entered the third phase of clinical trials, in the existing large number of clinical data, no one has side effects, the effect is very obvious.

But we should also guard against the negative impact of the rise in the RMB exchange rate on the economy. The rise in the RMB exchange rate will inevitably reduce the relative competitiveness of Chinese export enterprises, plastic injection molding business already face such a problem now. Japan was forced by the United States to raise the yen exchange rate, which greatly hit the export competitiveness of Japanese goods. In the end, Japan's economy fell into recession for 20 years. Even now, the GDP of 2019 in Japan has not exceeded the level of 1995.

Of course, the sharp appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, exports will certainly be hit. As Cnmoulding, now injection molds order is lower than before. However, since the outbreak, China's export situation has been improving and even positive growth has occurred in August, mainly because of the unparalleled superiority of our domestic perfect supply chain system under the great destruction of the global supply chain. Manufacturing in many countries has been hit hard by the epidemic. The impact of the RMB exchange rate on China's exports must at least wait until the epidemic is controlled. On the other hand, the inflow of hot money into the country will also aggravate the turbulence in the domestic capital market. The characteristic of hot money is that it comes and goes quickly, and if the Fed's policy changes, the enthusiasm will flow out quickly. The domestic stock market will fall into violent shock in a short time, this is also bad. Similarly, at the beginning of this year, the stock market in the United States fell into a continuous fuse, also because of the huge impact of the epidemic on the economies of various countries, countries have withdrawn funds from the United States market, the result of the withdrawal of hot money. A rise in the RMB exchange rate means that the value of the RMB is recognized by the international market, and the exchange rate rises by 5%, which means that the GDP has increased by 5%, and the overall national strength of our country is bound to rise. But we should also pay close attention to export competitiveness and the flow of hot money, control the rhythm.

Trump's infection does n' t help the campaign, but it may risk further deterioration in Sino-US relations

 On October 2, Trump revealed that he and first lady Melania were infected with the new crown pneumonia. Although Trump and his wife Melania say they are in good shape and White House doctors have issued statements saying they are in good condition, according to U.S. CNN, medical experts say Trump may take at least a week to develop symptoms of new crown pneumonia.

 Referring to Boris Johnson's case, he felt good at the beginning of the diagnosis, but finally became severe and on the ventilator. Although Johnson may have been infected with a higher virus density and seemed more toxic at the time, Boris Johnson was younger than Trump, and the Trump BMI index reached 30.4, for obese people, so Trump is not likely to become severe.

 Some think Trump's illness is good for the election, and some even think it's a conspiracy. But Cnmoulding should see that American voters have a good understanding of their position, and because of the social tear, both Trump and anti-Trump voters are very firm, and will not change their vote because of the infection with Trump's new crown pneumonia. As for middle voters or swing states, this time it is small, and middle voters clearly have more reason to think Trump is self-inflicted.

Instead, Trump's illness may pose a bigger problem for the Republican presidential election, and serious health problems for candidates can easily lead to chaos within the campaign, especially for Trump, a low-quality decision-making team. There are many conceited ambitions but the strategy is very rough. Where Trump may not be able to control the situation, there may be some people within the team looking for self-interest and undermining the quality of the campaign.

For now, the biggest beneficiary of Trump's infection is the Republican establishment, and Mike Burns can have more power for the time being, which could make some arrangements for the Republican establishment. Of course, the Republican Party is still running around the election, and whether Pence will be hit by a pie in the sky or whether Trump will be unlucky enough to become sick or sick. The odds are small, but it would be interesting to see if the Republican establishment would push the Republican de-Trump,

So, on a temporary basis, Trump's infection may not have much impact on the election. A potential danger, however, is whether Trump will spread his emotions to China if he becomes severe and recovers after severe pain. Although the US presidential election is November 3, the formal transfer of power is January 20, and whether Trump's emotional push for a policy that seriously deteriorates Sino-US relations will become a potential risk. Although Trump hides the merchant's shrewdness behind the "giant baby ", his inability to reasonably control his emotions and extreme egotistical personality has been repeatedly confirmed, so he could have extremely serious consequences if he spread the accumulated defeat and illness into Sino-US relations.

The US presidential campaign, which had already targeted China, is now making more variables.

 We hope that China-US relations will return to normal as soon as possible. The hope of a Chinese mold maker.

Judgment of Trump after Diagnosis COVID-19

CNMOULDING GUESS:

 Short-term financial markets will fluctuate dramatically
 And as Trump's condition develops, it fluctuates more
 You can choose to take the bottom
 You can also choose to stay away from the market
 Remember, risk always exists alongside opportunity
 Stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, gold and silver

Merkel proposed Germany to join the P5, also named "individual countries"

 Germany moves forward

 German Chancellor Angela Merkel came to power, trying to elevate Germany's influence on the world political stage. The u.n. security council would have five permanent members, but germany now wants to be a permanent member, too. Merkel said that if germany could become a permanent member, germany would be willing to take on more international responsibility and they were fully prepared.

 Germany has made many efforts to become a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. Germany is confident this time for a reason. Germany believes that there are some major powers that strongly advocate unilateralism, undermine the unity of the United Nations and make the United Nations a puppet. This country also refuses to assume the responsibility of the great powers, and Germany can do better than this big country when it becomes a permanent member.

The benefits

In addition to Germany, India, Brazil and Japan have always wanted to join the permanent members. Why are they so keen to join this international cooperation organization that has no right to interfere in their internal affairs? To become a permanent member, of course, has many advantages. The five permanent members can legally possess nuclear weapons, and many non-permanent members now have nuclear weapons.

But when it comes to permanent membership, it can be right without worrying all the time. Another advantage is that when it comes to permanent membership, it can exercise the veto, not often denied. The veto power of permanent members is permanent members is important. A resolution to be adopted by a United Nations, if one of them votes against, becomes useless.

Demand

In addition to the right of veto, Germany faces a complex international environment. Germany has built a Beixi No .2 gas pipeline with Russia to promote its own economic development. But the United States continues to obstruct, the United States often refers to the NATO, the United States is very passive, in order to enhance Germany's voice, Germany is bound to become a permanent member.

In addition, these years of Euroskepticism, in order to restore the situation, Germany needs to stand up for a day, and another point is that Merkel has made a lot of achievements in these years, the term of office is coming to an end, if she can successfully make Germany into normal, then her personal political career can be said to be very satisfactory. Merkel proposed Germany to join the P5, and named ” individual countries “, have a national side, but also other considerations.

More than 84% of South Korean companies support China

  The U.S. Government miscalculated? The chip business lost 20 billion

After the epidemic, global value chains (a division of products) are accelerating restructuring. At that time, global value chain dominance or face change, and the ambitious United States are planning to continue to dominate the global value chain.

 Even under the new global value chain order, South Korean companies will not reduce their trading cooperation with Chinese companies, according to a poll. Eighty-four.3 percent of the companies surveyed said they would maintain or expand business with Chinese companies.

In fact, the formation of a global industrial value chain is the inevitable result of economic development, it is difficult for Korean enterprises not to cooperate with China. And the current U.S. foreign restrictions on-chip exports are thus undermining the global chip industry chain supply security. This means that in the future, companies in other countries are likely to avoid restructuring new supply chains to reduce supply risks.

 At present, the American chip industry is suffering from "anti-macrophage ". In April, the international semiconductor association, which represents America's semiconductor interests, warned that if u.s. restricted exports of chips and related technologies, it would lose $20 billion a year in its "chip business ". Predictably, the United States is likely to gradually lose its sense of existence in the global chip industry chain.

On the contrary, the presence of Chinese enterprises in the global supply chain is becoming stronger and stronger. The Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation Institute of Global value chain point out that Chinese enterprises have become one of the core nodes and key links in the global supply chain, but there is still a certain distance from the global dominant position. In the future, China will promote the construction of a China-led global value chain in two ways, Xinhua reported on September 22.

First, cultivate industry leaders and create a Chinese enterprise-led industrial chain. Huawei, for example, as the world's top 5 G technology leader, can drive a group of 5 industry suppliers. Second, Chinese enterprises are deeply embedded in the global supply chain, so that the world can not be separated from Chinese manufacturing, thus establishing the leading position of Chinese enterprises in the global value chain.

World Bank, China's economy may increase 7.9% in 2021

 On September 29, the World Bank released its October 2020 semi-annual report on East Asia and the Pacific: from containment to recovery, with China's economy expected to grow 7.9 percent by 2021.

The report notes that the new crown pneumonia epidemic has had a triple impact on developing economies in the East Asia Pacific region: the pandemic itself, the impact of preventive measures on the economy, and the impact of the crisis on the global economic recession. Rapid action was needed to ensure that the pandemic did not affect economic growth and increase poverty in the coming years.

The report states that some countries have so far effectively curbed the spread of the virus and that domestic economic activity has gradually recovered. But Asia-Pacific economies depend heavily on the rest of the world, and global demand remains weak. The region is expected to grow by only 0.9 percent in 2020, the lowest rate since 1967. China is expected to grow by 2.0% by 2020, with government spending, strong exports and low new infection rates helping. Other countries in the Asia-Pacific region are expected to shrink by 3.5 percent.

The report also said that the Asia-Pacific region's prospects for 2021 are brighter, based on the assumption of sustained recovery and normalization of economic activity in major economies, and linked to the possible availability of vaccines, China is expected to grow by 7.9 percent and other economies in the region by 5.1 percent. However, the output is expected to be well below pre-popular projections over the next two years. The outlook is particularly acute for some of the more exposed Pacific island countries, whose output is expected to be about 10 percent below pre-crisis levels by 2021.

The report predicts that poverty will rise for the first time in 20 years in the Asia-Pacific region: as many as 38 million people are expected to remain poor or return to poverty as a result of the pandemic (according to the upper-middle-income poverty standard of $5.5 per day).

 The World Bank's Vice-President for East Asia and the Pacific, Victoria Kwa, said:" The new crown pneumonia epidemic not only hit the poor the most but also created a group of' new poor'. The Asia-Pacific region faces unprecedented challenges and governments face difficult choices. But there are also sensible policy options available that can reduce these trade-offs, such as investing in better detection and tracking capabilities and continuously expanding social protection to include the poor and the informal sector ."

 The report warns that without simultaneous action on multiple fronts, the pandemic could cut regional growth by one percentage point per year over the next 10 years, with poor households most affected by less access to health, education, employment and financial services.

 A huge fiscal deficit in the Asia-Pacific region by 2020 is projected to increase government debt by an average of 7 percent GDP. The report calls for fiscal reform to mobilize revenue by increasing progressive taxes and reducing wasteful spending. In some countries, the stock of outstanding debt may have reached unsustainable levels, requiring greater external support.

 "Many Asia-Pacific countries have managed to contain the epidemic and provide relief, but efforts are needed to achieve recovery and growth," said Aditya Matu, the World Bank's chief economist for East Asia and the Pacific. Current priorities should be the safe return to human capital; the expansion of a narrow tax base to avoid cuts in public investment; and the reform of protected services to take advantage of emerging digital opportunities ."

China is now facing decoupling from the U.S. economy, a small mold company we can't control. As an export-oriented manufacturing enterprise, all we can do is to improve our ability. When the global trading environment gets warmer, if we are still alive, it is successful.