2020年3月5日星期四

Global energy industry joins forces Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)





全球能源行业携手抗击新冠病毒

能源是世界的动力,能源行业受新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎疫情(简称“新冠疫情”)影响比较大,能源行业与整个国民经济关系密切,因此,整个国家的 GDP 会受到比较大的影响。能源行业又可以细分为很多行业,最近,我们和国家电网、中国石油等大央企,以及部分民营能源企业的有关人员进行了交
流,下面简要分析新冠疫情对石油天然气行业和电力行业的影响,提出相应的对策建议。

6. Global energy industry joins forces to
fight COVID-19

Energy is the driving force of the world.
The pneumonia epidemic of the COVID-19 infection in the energy industry
(referred to as the "new crown epidemic") is relatively large. The
energy industry is closely related to the entire national economy. Therefore,
the GDP of the entire country will be relatively affected. The energy industry
can be subdivided into many industries. Recently, we have communicated with
relevant personnel of large central enterprises such as State Grid, PetroChina,
and some private energy companies. The following briefly analyzes the impact of
the new crown epidemic on the oil and gas industry and the power industry
Propose corresponding countermeasures.


一、新冠疫情对石油天然气行业的影响

我们询问了一些国有与民营加油站,武汉封城以来,加油站的营业收入只有去年同期的 30%左右。抗击新冠病毒成为全国的头等大事之后,全国范围内
迎来企业延长假期、推迟复工时间,高速公路限行、公共交通停运,甚至一些
边远地区的公共交通都停运,绝大部分民众响应政府号召居家避险、不出家
门,私家车出行频率与出行半径大幅萎缩;户外工程、工矿企业、物流运输等行业短期内难以复工,柴油需求处于冰点。导致国内成品油市场消费量急剧下降。受疫情影响,国内地炼工厂也普遍承压。由于交通政策,部分高速危化品物流运输受阻,地炼的下游产品库存激增压力下,炼厂降量甚至停工集中,部分主流地炼降量幅度在 30%-50%,部分甚至维持 30%开工负荷,个别地炼部分装置已经停工或闭路循环,另有部分地炼做好全厂停工预案,观望事态进展待定。

I. Impact of Xinguan epidemic on oil and
gas industry

We asked some state-owned and private gas
stations. Since Wuhan was closed, the operating income of gas stations has been
only about 30% of the same period last year. After the fight against the new
crown virus became the nation ’s top priority, companies across the country
ushered in extended vacations and postponement of work. National highways were
restricted, public transportation was suspended, and even public transportation
in some remote areas was suspended. Most people responded to the government ’s
call. The risk of home staying at home and not leaving home has greatly reduced
the frequency and radius of travel of private cars; outdoor engineering,
industrial and mining enterprises, logistics and transportation industries are
difficult to resume work in the short term, and diesel demand is at freezing
point. As a result, the domestic refined oil market consumption has dropped
sharply. Affected by the epidemic, domestic refineries are also under pressure.
Due to transportation policies, some high-speed hazardous chemicals logistics
transportation was blocked. Under the pressure of the downstream product
inventories of geochemical refining surged, the reduction of refineries and
even shutdowns were concentrated. Some mainstream refining reduction ranges
from 30% to 50%, and some even maintained 30%. Starting load, some plants have
been shut down or closed-loop in some refineries, while others have been
prepared for the entire plant shutdown plan, and wait and see the progress of
the situation to be determined.

国内油价开始下调。据国家发改委消息,国内油价迎 2020 年首次下调,新
一轮国内成品油调价窗口 4 24 时开启。汽油每吨下调 420 元、柴油每吨下调
405 元。全国平均来看:92 号汽油每升下调 0.33 元、95 号汽油每升下调 0.35
元、0 号柴油每升下调 0.35 元。
Domestic oil prices began to fall.
According to the National Development and Reform Commission, domestic oil
prices will fall for the first time in 2020, and a new round of domestic
refined oil price adjustment windows will open at 24:00 on the 4th. Gasoline is
reduced by 420 yuan per ton and diesel is reduced by 405 yuan per ton.
Nationally, on average: No. 92 gasoline is lowered by 0.33 yuan per liter, No.
95 gasoline is lowered by 0.35 yuan per liter, and No. 0 diesel is powered by
0.35 yuan per liter.


新冠疫情也影响国外油价。从国际油价来看,2020 1 21 日,国际油价进入了下行通道,这轮下跌源于疫情的扩散和蔓延。从武汉封城开始,国际油价的跌幅迅速拉大,以每天超过 1 美元/桶的幅度连跌四天。1 28 日,国际油价盘中更是跌到了三个多月来的最低价位。OPEC 及其盟友进行了初步讨论,并表示已做好准备采取措施,包括采取进一步削减产量,同时密切关注疫情对原油价格影响。
The new crown epidemic also affected
foreign oil prices. From the perspective of international oil prices, on January 21, 2020, international oil prices entered a downward channel. This
round of decline stems from the spread and spread of the epidemic. Starting
from the closure of Wuhan, the decline in international oil prices quickly
increased, falling for four consecutive days at a rate of more than $ 1 per
barrel per day. On January 28, the international oil price fell to its lowest
level in more than three months. OPEC and its allies held preliminary
discussions and said that they were ready to take measures, including further
reductions in production, while closely monitoring the impact of the epidemic
on crude oil prices.
二、新冠疫情对电力行业的影响

新冠疫情直接影响电网公司的营业收入。绝大多数人呆在家里,居民用电量增加,但是对于电网公司的营业收入没有多少贡献。很多人不知道中国的电价政
策,电价由国家发改委在决定。从 2017 年到 2019 年,我国实现了连续三年降低
工商业电价,2019 年《政府工作报告》再次提出关于一般工商业平均电价再降低 
10%的要求。电价收入和一般的市场经济思维明显不同,真正用电量大的是工业、 商业服务业企业,居民用电量明显低于工商业用电,理论上应该居民用户电价高
于工商业用户,但是国家发改委的规定是工商业用户的电价高于居民用电的电价。全国范围内,居民用电量一般占 15%,工商用电占 85%。新冠疫情期间,工厂停
工或者延迟复工,商店关门或者延迟开张,电网公司的主体收入自然明显下降。
过去 20 年来,世界能源强度(单位 GDP 能耗)平均每年下降 1.4%,其中一个主要原因是能源系统的加速电气化,因为使用电力比直接燃烧化石燃料更高效
(使用电力的热量损失更少)。电网公司营业收入降低,将直接波及众多相关行业。电力由煤炭、石油、天然气、核燃料、水能、海洋能、风能、太阳能、生物质能等一次能源经发电设施转换成电能,再通过输电、变电与配电系统供给用户作为能源。

2, the impact of the new crown epidemic on
the power industry

The new crown epidemic directly affects the
operating income of grid companies. The vast majority of people stay at home,
and residents consume more electricity, but they do not contribute much to the
operating income of the grid company. Many people don't know China's
electricity price policy. The electricity price is determined by the National
Development and Reform Commission. From 2017 to 2019, China has achieved
reductions in industrial and commercial electricity prices for three
consecutive years. The 2019 Government Work Report once again proposed that the
average industrial and commercial electricity prices were lowered again 10%
requirement. The electricity price income is obviously different from the
general market economy thinking. The real electricity consumers are industrial
and commercial service companies. The electricity consumption of residents is
significantly lower than that of industrial and commercial electricity.
Theoretically, the electricity price of residential users should be higher than
that of industrial and commercial users. However, the National Development and
Reform Commission The rule is that the electricity price of industrial and
commercial users is higher than the electricity price of residential
electricity. Nationally, residents generally consume 15% of electricity, and
industrial and commercial electricity accounts for 85%. During the new crown
epidemic, factory shutdowns or delayed resumption of work, store closures or
delayed openings, the main income of the grid companies naturally dropped
significantly.
Over the past 20 years, the world's energy
intensity (energy consumption per unit of GDP) has decreased by an average of 1.4%
per year. One of the main reasons is the accelerated electrification of energy
systems, because the use of electricity is more efficient than direct burning
of fossil fuels.
(Less heat loss from electricity). The
reduction in operating income of power grid companies will directly affect many
related industries. Electricity is converted from primary energy such as coal,
petroleum, natural gas, nuclear fuel, hydropower, ocean energy, wind energy,
solar energy, and biomass energy into electricity through power generation
facilities, and then supplied to users as energy through power transmission,
transformation, and distribution systems.

电力企业工期受影响。1 30 日,国家能源局针对当前疫情印发通知,要求电力企业科学确定复工复产时间节点,及时修订施工作业方案,重新确定合理工期,严禁抢进度、赶工期。疫情导致的延迟复工对电力企业抢装“331”、“630”并网产生了影响。光伏 331 抢装并网难度大,光伏企业业绩受直接影响。部分自动化程度高的能源企业受疫情影响比较低,例如通威太阳能成都基地 A1 智能制造车间有 16 条全封闭的智能制造高效晶硅电池片自动化生产线,
由自动抓取的机械臂、智能运输机器人组成。自动化程度高的企业可以缓解人员复工推迟的问题。但是受疫情影响,物流运输或存在一定困难,对订单交付有影响。

除了湖北,经济发达的浙江和广东用电量会明显减少。目前新型冠状病毒感染肺炎疫情,除了湖北是重灾区外,长三角的浙江、珠三角的广东也是重灾区。截止 2 6 11 24 分,新型冠状病毒感染肺炎的确诊病例 28060 个,
其中湖北 19665 个,浙江 954 个,广东 944 个。广东和浙江是一直是经济发达地区,这些地区的企业复工时间会比较晚,用电量会明显减少。从地区来看我国的电量结构来,2019 年,从比重看,东部、中部、西部和东北地区用电量所占全国比重分别为 47.2%18.7%28.3%5.8%。从贡献率看,各地区用电量增长对全社会用电量增长的贡献率分别为 37.9%18.8%38.4%4.9%。浙江和广东用电量的减少,对于整个国家用电量的减少会有明显的影响。
The construction period of power companies
is affected. On January 30, the National Energy Administration issued a notice
in response to the current epidemic, requiring electric power companies to
scientifically determine the time point for the resumption and resumption of
production, promptly revise the construction operation plan, and re-determine a
reasonable schedule. It is strictly forbidden to rush the schedule and
schedule. The delayed resumption of work caused by the epidemic situation had an
impact on the rush-installation of the "331" and "630"
grid-connected power companies. Photovoltaic 331 is difficult to install and
connect to the grid, and the performance of photovoltaic companies is directly
affected. Some highly automated energy companies are less affected by the
epidemic. For example, Tongwei Solar's Chengdu base A1 intelligent
manufacturing workshop has 16 fully-closed intelligent manufacturing
high-efficiency crystalline silicon cell automated production lines. The
robotic arms and intelligent transportation robots are automatically grasped.
composition. Companies with a high degree of automation can alleviate the delay
in resuming work. However, due to the epidemic situation, there may be some
difficulties in logistics and transportation, which will affect the delivery of
orders.

Except for Hubei, the economically
developed Zhejiang and Guangdong will consume significantly less electricity.
At present, in addition to Hubei being the hardest hit area for COVID-19
infection pneumonia, Zhejiang in the Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong in the
Pearl River Delta is also the hardest-hit areas. As of 11:24 on February 6,
28,060 confirmed cases of pneumonitis caused by the COVID-19,
Among them, 19665 were in Hubei, 954 in
Zhejiang, and 944 in Guangdong. Guangdong and Zhejiang have always been
economically developed regions, and companies in these regions will return to
work later and consume significantly less electricity. Looking at China's
electricity structure from a regional perspective, in 2019, in terms of
proportion, the proportion of electricity consumption in the eastern, central,
western, and northeastern regions accounted for 47.2%, 18.7%, 28.3%, and 5.8%
of the country. From the perspective of contribution rates, the contribution rates
of the growth of power consumption in various regions to the growth of power
consumption of the whole society were 37.9%, 18.8%, 38.4%, and 4.9%,
respectively. The reduction of electricity consumption in Zhejiang and
Guangdong will have a significant impact on the reduction of electricity
consumption in the entire country.

三、能源行业如何应对新冠疫情

不管是和平时期,还是战争年代,能源都受到全世界广泛的关注。世界是一个地球村,抗击新冠病毒需要全世界人民齐心协力共度时艰。能源行业同样如此,
需要全世界行业互助,同时,国家、地区、企业需要采取切实的救助措施,“急则治标,缓则之本”。

3How the energy
industry responds to the new crown epidemic

Whether in peace or wartime, energy has
received widespread attention worldwide. The world is a global village.
Fighting the new crown virus requires people from all over the world to work
together to cope with the difficulties. The same is true for the energy
industry, which requires mutual assistance from industries around the world. At
the same time, countries, regions, and enterprises need to take effective
rescue measures.

(一)积极构建全球能源互联网
行业是全球性的,新冠疫情对全球能源行业都有重要影响,应对新冠疫情也应该全球能源企业携起手来,共同抗击。我国能源消费量居世界第一,中国能源行业受新型冠状病毒感染肺炎疫情的冲击,对于世界能源行业也会产生明显的影响。据 2018 年《BP 世界能源统计年鉴》,2017 年中国一次能源消费总量为 3132.2百万吨油当量,美国为 2234.9 百万吨油当量,欧盟为 1689 百万吨油当量,位居榜单前三名。印度、俄罗斯分别以 753.7698.3 百万吨油当量居于第四、五名,
均超过 500 百万吨油当量。人类社会的发展,加强了国家之间、企业之间的互动,
流行病、传染病自然很难只在一个地区一个国家发作,能源行业需要继续建立广泛的合作。中国国家主席习近平 2015 9 26 日出席在纽约举行的联合国成立70 周年系列峰会,在联合国总部发表演讲时就指出,
中国倡议探讨构建全球能源互联网,推动以清洁和绿色方式满足全球电力的需求。国家电网公司已经在实施“三型两网,世界一流”战略,在积极展开行动。希望国内外其他能源企业也积极参与全球能源互联网的构建,利用新冠疫情这个危机事件,信息共享,相互协作,共同为构建人类命运共同体做贡献。

(I) Actively Building a Global Energy Internet
The industry is global, and the new crown
epidemic has an important impact on the global energy industry. To respond to
the new crown epidemic, global energy companies should join hands and fight
together. China's energy consumption ranks first in the world. The impact of
the COVID-19-infected pneumonia epidemic in China's energy industry will also
have a significant impact on the world's energy industry. According to the BP
World Energy Statistical Yearbook 2018, China's total primary energy consumption
in 2017 was 3132.2 million tons of oil equivalent, the United States was 2234.9
million tons of oil equivalent and the European Union was 1689 million tons of
oil equivalent. Three. India and Russia ranked fourth and fifth with 753.7 and
698.3 million tons of oil equivalent, respectively, both exceeding 500 million
tons of oil equivalent. The development of human society has strengthened the
interaction between countries and enterprises. It is difficult for epidemics
and infectious diseases to occur in only one region and one country. The energy
industry needs to continue to establish extensive cooperation. Chinese
President Xi Jinping attended the 70th Anniversary Summit of the United Nations
in New York on September 26, 2015, and stated at the United Nations
Headquarters that China advocates exploring the establishment of a global
energy Internet and promoting the clean and green way to meet the global power
demand. The State Grid Corporation of China has already implemented the
strategy of "three types and two networks, world-class" and is
actively carrying out actions. It is hoped that other energy companies at home
and abroad will also actively participate in the construction of the global
energy Internet, make use of the crisis event of the new crown epidemic, share
information and cooperate with each other to jointly contribute to the
construction of a community of shared future for mankind.

(二)国家出台扶持政策
能源行业是国家的支柱产业,中国石化、中国石油和国家电网这些能源企业,
是中国营业收入最大的前三家公司,这些能源企业的稳定和发展,将直接影响其他行业的正常与稳定。国务院国资委在考核这些企业的“两利三率”等指标时,
应该根据受影响的程度和时间,降低要求,适度调整指标值。国家能源局已经在针对不同的能源企业、能源项目制定适当的优惠政策。1 23 日,国家能源局发布《关于 2020 年风电、光伏发电项目建设有关事项通知(征求意见稿)》,明确 2020 年新建光伏发电项目补贴预算总额度为 15 亿元,其中户用 5 亿元,竞价(包括集中式光伏电站和工商业分布式光伏项目)10 亿元。

(2) National support policies
The energy industry is a national pillar
industry. Energy companies such as Sinopec, PetroChina, and State Grid are the
top three companies with the largest operating income in China. The stability
and development of these energy companies will directly affect the normality
and stability of other industries. The SASAC of the State Council, when
assessing indicators such as "two benefits and three rates" of these
enterprises, should reduce the requirements and appropriately adjust the value
of the indicators according to the extent and time of the impact. The National
Energy Administration has formulated appropriate preferential policies for
different energy companies and energy projects. On January 23, the National
Energy Administration issued the “Notice on Construction of Wind and Photovoltaic
Power Generation Projects in 2020 (Consultation Draft)”, clarifying that the
total subsidy budget for new photovoltaic power generation projects in 2020 was
1.5 billion yuan, of which 500 million were for household use. The bid price
(including centralized photovoltaic power plants and industrial and commercial
distributed photovoltaic projects) is RMB 1 billion.

(三)企业提升组织能力
国家电网、中国石油的正式员工都在 100 万人以上,一些民营能源企业可能只有几十个员工。能源企业,不管规模大小,都直接受到新冠疫情的影响。减少负面影响最根本的行为还是在于如何进行组织变革,提高组织能力,增强竞争优势。对于新型冠状病毒感染肺炎,目前国内外都没有特别有效的治疗药物,目前的治疗主要采取对症和支持治疗,增强人体免疫力。“正气存内,邪不可干”,
自身免疫力强,才会身体健康,抵御种种病毒。企业的正气就是组织能力。应该把疫情、危机作为组织变革的机会,对企业组织结构进行研究,对人力资源、财务、流程、市场、信息化等方面制订出改革方案,然后结合各个时期的工作重点,
有步骤,有计划的加以实施。组织结构的变革可以同人员培训,管理方法的改进同步进行。树立挣工资而不是发工资的理念,不管是国有企业,还是民营企业,
外资企业,都应该大力宣传公司与员工利益一致、共度时艰的理念,并且切实体现在公司制度改进、流程优化等方面上。


 (3)
enterprises to improve organizational capabilities
State Grid and PetroChina have more than 1
million full-time employees and some private energy companies may only have
dozens of employees. Energy companies, regardless of size, are directly
affected by the new crown epidemic. The most fundamental behavior to reduce
negative effects is how to carry out organizational changes, improve
organizational capabilities, and enhance competitive advantage. There is
currently no particularly effective treatment for new-type coronavirus-infected
pneumonia at home and abroad. The current treatment is mainly symptomatic and
supportive to enhance human immunity. "Within the righteousness, evil
can't be done." Only when you have strong immunity can you be healthy and
resistant to viruses. The righteousness of an enterprise is its organizational
ability. The epidemic situation and crisis should be used as an opportunity for
organizational change, research on the organizational structure of the
enterprise, and formulate reform plans for human resources, finance, processes,
markets, informatization, etc., and then combine the work priorities of each
period with steps and plans Implementation. Organizational changes can be
synchronized with personnel training and improvements in management methods.
Establish the concept of earning wages rather than paying them. Whether it is a state-owned enterprise, a private enterprise, or a foreign-funded enterprise,
they should vigorously promote the idea that the company and employees share
the same interests and live together in difficult times, and this should be
reflected in the improvement of the company's system and process optimization
on.



   because our company business is injection molding, energy up , material up

and we don't hope so. lower price for energy is good for the plastic injection molding industry.


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