2020年8月2日星期日

China's current demographic dividend has shifted from cheap workers to expensive pensions

 China's manufacturing industry has created one miracle after another in the past few decades, which is inextricably linked to China's demographic dividend



 Once made in China was an important support for China's economic development, and now Southeast Asian countries are beginning to make efforts in the middle and low-end manufacturing industries. And by China's family planning, labor force comprehensive quality improvement and other factors, China's demographic dividend advantage is gradually losing.
 Uniqlo, Nike, Foxconn, Samsung and other world-renowned companies have opened new factories in Southeast Asia and India, moving out of China. In recent years, Dongguan, known as the manufacturing capital, has closed hundreds of large factories.

But do you think the demographic dividend is over? The second demographic dividend


 When a country or region accounts for 10% of the population over 60 years old or 7% of the population over 65 years old, it means that the population of this country or region is in an aging society.
 At present, Japan is the world's most aging population, the proportion of people over 65 years old reached 27%, ranked first in the world, while Italy 23%, Germany 21% ranked second and third.
 2019 global population aging problem intensified, China's population aging growth rate of the world's first!
 For today's China, the population base is large, the economic development is also advancing by leaps and bounds, but the per capita proportion is small, also faces the population age question, has become the economic development a resistance.

It is expected that by 2030, China's population over 65 years of age will exceed that of Japan, becoming the world's most aging country. In 2050, society will enter the stage of deep aging.


 With the acceleration of the aging process, the resources of nursing homes in China are gradually in short supply. Many investors have seen business opportunities in nursing homes.
 Now the pace of urban life is relatively fast, young people's work is busy, life pressure is great, there are many people do not have time and energy to take care of the elderly at home, so choose to send the elderly to nursing homes, I hope the elderly can get more professional care.
 Now the general nursing home charge is basically made up of nursing fee, accommodation fee, board fee, basic medical reserve fee, and so on several aspects, comprehensive these items, the ordinary nursing home charge is about 5000 yuan per month, of course, the cost will also be local standard, and the actual situation of the elderly have a certain relationship.
 Some mobility inconvenience, life can not take care of the elderly, fees can reach about 10,000 yuan if a nursing home can recruit 30 people, then a year, nursing home investment costs can be earned back.

The Economic Reference has published an article entitled "Pension, education, medical care is expected to stimulate domestic demand" troika "article. At present, the rigid demand in the fields of old-age care, education and health care is explosive
 In the first-tier cities, it is understood that the phenomenon of "one bed is difficult to obtain" in nursing homes is more common, and the contradiction between the demand for a blowout and the shortage of supply is becoming increasingly sharp.
 "Behind the big problem is the big opportunity, as long as the measure is appropriate, the endowment will become the new motive force of economic development quickly ." Zhang Kai, vice president of the China Association of Aging Industry, said.
 As a pioneer in the pension industry for more than 10 years, Hunan "Chinese Care" Company CEO Longpan believes that the pension industry is likely to become the next industry after the real estate "rich mine ".
 Zhao Baoquan, president of Happy Old People's Daily, believes that the "middle class" consumption capacity of the first cities that are aging is relatively strong, and the consumption will is strong, and they are eager to enjoy professional pension services.

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